A VC - Latest Comments in A Big Week For The Mobile Web

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

fredwilson — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:13:23 -0000

Got it

Thanks

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

amh15 — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 17:19:14 -0000

Fred, I should have remembered that you prefer a real keyboard, so the Hero may not be for you. It is an iPhone competitor however (I am still in Apple's grip and frustrated by it). Anyway, I'm sure an HTC Sense UI device will come along with a physical keyboard for those that like one.

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

fredwilson — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 10:17:08 -0000

Thanks for that tip. I'll check it out

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

amh15 — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 08:54:29 -0000

I thought the Droid ad was excellent, but I think the HTC Hero will be a better experience. HTC have really stepped it up while Motorola were sleeping.

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

fredwilson — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:07:44 -0000

Peter - we've had this discussion before and I agree with you but there is a gap we have to cross and apps are a good solution during the gap years

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

fredwilson — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:06:48 -0000

I agree with your frothy point. Yesterday reminded me of oct 1999. So much stuff happening so fast in our portfolio. My head is spinning

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

Ram_disqus — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:52:50 -0000

In-app purchases in free apps could potentially have a positive impact, but I wouldn't go as far as agreeing with you that "This is a big deal. I think this could be an "order of magnitude" kind of inflection point for monetizing mobile apps."

For one, it was always possible for developers to promote their paid apps from within their free apps (the downside was that tapping the "purchase" link would make the user exit their free app to make the purchase.)
The new policy makes the upsell path a bit easier. However unless Apple changes their current rating system and (more importantly) their ranking system, many developers may be reluctant to go the freemium route. I've discussed these (and other) potential downsides in greater detail in my latest blog post (on App Store freemium).

Ultimately, I'm slightly leaning towards the thought that the new policy will have a neutral or slightly positive impact, but I don't expect this to be an '"order of magnitude" kind of inflection point for monetizing mobile apps'.
In contrast, I think that the original introduction of in-app purchases in paid apps (with OS 3.0) was a huge deal.

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

twitter-609103 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:16:23 -0000

Couple of points. There is only one Internet - good old HTTP/HTML. Segmenting it into the desktop web and the mobile web is only going to cause confusion. Customers want one platform, (the web) one interface (the browser) and multiple data sets (the context). The reason the browser will be the winner in all of this is simple - it's platform agnostic. Try building cross platform mobile applications. It's time consuming and expensive. Using the browser and one set of business logic for everything is far more efficient and less risky. The problem on mobile is detecting what the exact capabilities of the device. The good news is that there is already software out there that allows you (the web server/web app) to know in real exactly what the Mobile phone is capable of doing, right down to the machine level. Once you have this "context" you can personalize the web page on the fly for the customer - and that's where the real revenue generation comes from.

As for optimization - for goodness sake, compress the data. Use Mod_Gzip (it's free) and save upwards of 90% of your bandwidth. Cut out all the flash and crap and deliver crisp, clear, concise, compelling results to your customers. Mobile is about finding not about searching. The more context you have when the browser/user makes a request the more compelling the response can become. If you want to learn more there's a white paper called... delivering increased relevance with mobile meta data - you can find it here: http://bit.ly/TE3PF and for the marketing types there's another white paper: How to mobilize vs. miniaturize your existing Web service which you can find here: http://bit.ly/12vwwk

Cheers,

Peter

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

walrusoflove — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 02:55:30 -0000

for sure....it helps make it more manageable and predictable in many ways. the opportunities are there....just been to some mobile events lately where it was a bit 'frenzied' ..... 'the world has changed' mindset. iphone was an amazing shot in the arm....but i think the industry will maintain a certain pace due to constraints that are still present....

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

markslater — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 06:47:59 -0000

i don't know why people still think that its in someone's DNA to want to receive a marketing message period. I dont.

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

markslater — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 06:42:44 -0000

totally agree about the high bar. i am still in that phase where i find myself saying - what the **** were all the device manufacturers (save BB) doing for the past decade that they did not see this coming. Its 2 or 3 generations ahead of others.

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

twitter-52378533 — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:25:48 -0000

Fred, I think you're right that Android has huge OEM/carrier momentum, and that it's in many ways more a threat to RIM and WinMo than the iPhone or Symbian. The iPhone is dramatic and inspiring but still small--only 8% of world smartphones. And Nokia Symbian outside the US retains over 40% share and a lot of cache.

I also agree that banners are not going to generate the CPMs to create sustainable returns; CPMs are abysmal. Yet in-app purchases and mobile search and new kinds of relevant, personalized text ads hold a lot of promise.

The bandwidth congestion issues you cite are only going to get worse. I don't think people realize how far away LTE/4G are from being nationwide... years... and remember it's a moving target. Http streaming data grew 60% globally QoQ in Q2 per Allot. Digital broadcast and wifi offloading will help. But I think users prefer on-demand video over a broadcast solution now that they've had the taste of being in control. Except for mass events like an Obama inauguration.

Since a few have cited the comment (Walt Mossberg started it) that we should think of these as tiny computers rather than 'smartphones,' I have to cite that the only browser that allows mobile users to access the full web, real fast, just as on their PC is Skyfire. Yes, I work there. But even the iPhone, Android, and others do not support Flash, Real, Silverlight, and other plug-ins where the long tail of rich media is played. If you have a WinMo or Symbian phone, test it at www.skyfire.com.

Lastly, yes, RIMM is frustrating developers with a development platform that is very difficult... constantly changing APIs between firmware updates, let alone OS versions. They have hired people who know they need to change the culture to have an SDK now. Android is a dream to develop on, by contrast.

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

Marc — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 19:46:23 -0000

im not sure if this has been mentioned already but Google also launched a mobile help portal here | http://google.com/support/mobile/ and a mobile blog here | http://googlemobile.blogspot.com/

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

markslater — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 19:16:46 -0000

it will be a social commerce app ( and when i say app i i don't mean device app - i mean CLI and device app). It will match a need or impulse with a service in real-time. it will be pull based, and it will accrue highly valuable social currency that can then be gamed and traded within networks. Its a mobile social assistant. Its flattens the marketing landscape for small businesses as they are now able to prospect for custom in real-time.

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

fredwilson — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:23:36 -0000

How about their kids?

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

fredwilson — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:21:03 -0000

They need to buy RIM

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

fredwilson — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:20:41 -0000

Mobile devices are a far more personal decision (and one made by consumers) than the social glue between web services. That's why I think there will not be one mobile device that runs the market

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

FeedUs — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:50:53 -0000

With my move from Blackberry to iPhone, I've been amazed by how much more I use the mobile web - both via the browser and via web connected apps.

However, I wonder if your (Fred's) location (NYC) warps your sense of how big the mobile market really is.

For people who don't live in a city and take public transportation, the 'internet in your pocket' just isn't quite as important.

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

brandingme — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:28:21 -0000

The GPS/VZ Navigator example is a good one, thanks for clarifying!

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

ErikSchwartz — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:12:49 -0000

VZW is notorious for hobbling bluetooth functionality on a wide variety of handsets.

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

ddelphin — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:08:29 -0000

I imagine that by "badly hobble", he means that Verizon has a tendency to turn off device features that are built into the device. This could be for a variety of reasons some of which are that they have a competing "paid for" service or that they want to ensure platform and network stability. An example of this is the Blackberry Curve from Verizon, which I have. The model comes standard with GPS built in but Verizon disables it until you pay for their $15/month VZ navigator service. Its really quite annoying when trying to follow directions with Google Maps and only being able to see where I am within 10 blocks. I also know that they've disabled some bluetooth features on many of their phones.

I am very much looking forward to the Droid and greatly hope VZW doesn't cripple it. I might even switch from my Blackberry! :-)

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

brandingme — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:05:41 -0000

Are we all being too iPhone-centric??

Yes, it is dominating the smartphone fight. But as another user in this thread mentioned, there is an even greater amount of the population that does not use smartphones. With that in mind, take another look at the advertisement for Droid; it's framing the fight in terms of "anything you can do I can do better." Fake Steve Job has a point about this same Droid ad: "[...] if the only way you can market your product is to compare it to some other product, you've already lost."

So, if we are asking for competition against the iPhone, why are we so bent on making a *better iPhone*??? Because isn't that what Droid is positioning itself as? Why not real innovation? If Verizon "has a map for that" (i.e., more nationwide 3G coverage), why not exploit that network with something else that is new, unique, and inspiring...something that will get a greater portion of Americans past the "all I want to do is talk on the phone" syndrome. Why not let Apple be Apple and let the lesson be that you can create growth in a field once dominated by RIMM and Windows Mobile (in the US, that is) if you come up with something innovative and easy to use?

Look, I'm young, naive, and mobile isn't my field (meaning, I don't have personal experience making an app nor do I own a business trying to make it in the mobile arena), so I'll let everyone else here set me straight. But I am a consumer, and I love my Motorola Q because the keyboard is easy to use, because it's two years old but is relatively thin and fits in a back pocket, and it has taken a BEATING but keeps on going, etc. Why not tell me why Droid will run better software, meaning it doesn't take 19 clicks to get to anything I want like it does on Microsoft Mobile, why it will do the things I want it to do while I'm on the go, and how I won't have to pay a premium for a freaking Apple logo on the back of it...

In other words, stop repeating others' mistakes (BB Storm, Palm Pre): if people want an iPhone, they don't want the imitation "better" iPhone; sell me something unique that's really badass...

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

pescatello — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 12:17:21 -0000

i went to Mobile World Congress this past year for the first time which is the largest mobile conference in the world. What you noticed as your cruised around the conf floor is (a) there are lots of phones (over 100) that are being released running Windows OS; (b) the Windows OS is nowhere near as usable as the iPhone or Android

Everyone wants to take on the iPhone the carriers and handset manufacturers did not have the tools (OS) to do so. They were stuck and it was painfully obvious that a new OS had to step up. Android had done that and i'm excited to see these new phones enter the market.

On the flip side, Windows Mobile has been the market for years and spent a lot of money and is almost useless. It'll be interesting to see what MS does to stay relevant

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

brandingme — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 12:11:29 -0000

could you clarify "badly hobble"? what does their history suggest they will they do with the OS that will make the handset DOA?

Re: A Big Week For The Mobile Web

alexcalic — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 12:07:29 -0000

While Google has alleviated one major competitive issue versus Apple's iPhone (choosing to work with Verizon, which offers a better network), the biggest fear/risk for Android is that it ends up like OpenSocial- sounded great but was too time consuming to build multiple iterations of for each member site and Facebook was already easy to build/maintain and allowed for its own ecosystem. With different handsets using different versions of Android, developers could get frustrated, especially if sales don't take off initially. Apple's timing of in-app monetization for free apps might not be a coincidence- let developers start seeing success, so they continue to focus on the iPhone platform.