A VC - Latest Comments in A SWOT Analysis On America

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

hamburglar — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 19:39:08 -0000

One thing that I think was missed in the Strength section is that the US is the best place in the world to prosper from your innovation (that could be part of what drives the hard working thing). That lends itself to an opportunity: loosen restrictions on smart people from around the world coming here to participate in out economy. If we open up the visa allocation to make it possible for anyone who can make a reasonable case that they will help the economy, America will stay on the forefront of innovation for the foreseable future. Otherwise, there's a risk of turning innovative people away and creating competition instead of adding to our lead in innovation.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

fredwilson — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 19:39:28 -0000

enjoy your swim JLM

i've not many on the 'net that i disagree with more and also enjoy debating with more

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

JLM — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 19:27:34 -0000

I am bored and dreading swimming today so I will respond in a slightly --- but still gentlemanly --- provocative manner. It is always good when ideas wrestle because the winning idea is strengthened by the tussle.

I fear that our foreign policy is going to have to be "interventionist" by the nature of the global threat. We are starting to drill down and really find out who our friends (a damn short list) and enemies (longer list but not a new list) are in the world. This journey of discovery reveals that we have both direct enemies and those who harbor our enemies. There are some complicated relationships and situations out there just now. [E.g, Pakistan would probably welcome us invading southern Pakistan to get rid of the Taliban. They don't even mind us killing OBL in NE Afghanistan but they don't want us to rile up the tribes in the NW even by hot pursuit across the border.] We have to engage the bad guys in their zip codes rather than ours. Do we always have to invade them --- of course not.

If we are prepared to explain to Moms what their sons died for in Darfur, then we will be spending a whole lot of time trying to look over the horizon and that means an interventionist foreign policy.

The Chinese are not going to go to war with the US over Polar ice cap or in the Pacific blue water but they will go to war with Taiwan even knowing that we are obligated to defend Taiwan. I am not certain I want to defend Taiwan against the dying throes of the Chinese despots. The existing regime which is slowly losing control of the country as it reverts to its capitalistic roots along the coast has one more really bad trick up its sleeve. I fear it is Taiwan.

We have to be very, very careful what we allow ourselves to get into. I cannot imagine anything worse than allowing Georgia to join NATO. While I think Russia is more than a bit out of line, we cannot take on the Russkis in Georgia and we should not be signing treaties willy nilly. Article 5 of the NATO Agreement is an unequivocal promise to GO TO WAR if any member nation is attacked. I am certain I do not want to go to war over Georgia.

Absent the potential for a theater nuclear exchange, the Russians are not a particularly formidable military force. Contrary to what they were selling, the Iraqis had their best equipment and it was not very good --- optical sights v infrared. Tanks battles where we were 95% on target at 3500 yards and they were 65% at 1500 yards. It's just a numbers game after that. I will be amazed if the Russian ships which are coming to the Caribbean and Venezuela get back home under their own power. They only have one aircraft carrier in their entire fleet. Remember the Russians did not fight a naval battle in WWII and they have a pre-WWII mindset.

In any event, the Russians in Venezuela merit watching in a very aggressive manner. This is fundamentally a violation of the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. [Do you think Charlie Gibson knows that one? LOL]

It's worth noting that the last time the Russians thought we had a green President, we had to deal with them in Cuba. That was a dicey situation.

Tax cuts for the rich do not create deficits. The tax burden in America is ridiculously high and is in excess of our direct competitive trading partners. That's a silly policy. Who said that? John Kennedy!

Deficits are created by letting the Congress approve a budget which exceeds revenue. We have gotten into a very bad habit of totalling up the "how much do we want to spend" column before we total up the "how much do we have" column. Eisenhower balanced 8 consecutive budgets and built the American nuclear arsenal and started the interstate highway system. If Michael Dell never paid taxes it would be fine with me as he has created a zillion jobs.

In addition, there is something very small in a country which is the home team for the American Dream which tries to make someone the bad guy when they get there by hard work.

Now, having said that, it really is time to have a US operating budget and a separate capital budget and decide how much of GDP we can have on the credit card at one time. When one has "good" credit, it is not bad to actually use it. So, I am not a purist but I sure would like folks to balance the budget from time to time. Unless, of course, Eisenhower was simply smarter than the current crop of politicians?

In life we are all stewards of what has been entrusted to us and there is nothing as dear as life itself. The argument that abortion is about a womans body is bogus. It is about the life that is growing within a womans body. The life that she has uniquely been granted stewardship over.

Her real moment of choice was when she dropped her panties. Everything after is called "consequences". The legal arguments supporting the discovery of a "right of privacy" in the US Constitution are right up there with the Loch Ness monster. They are simply illusionary.

It is time to deal with healthcare. I have provided healthcare insurance for my employees for a quarter century. Never even enters my mind not to do it. I just signed the authorization to renew the policy yesterday (2.8% increase for a premium plan with Humana). I added vision coverage this year at the request of the employees. I pay approximately 70% and the employees pay 30%. Everybody has skin in the game.

I make the CFO take competitive bids and let the employee committee make the final recommendation. I usually pick up most of the increase as a quasi profit sharing plan. Been doing it for years. Bottom line --- we don't need government to figure this out for us.

Note I am fully in favor of healthcare coverage, I just suggest it be by policy rather than mandate initially.

Gotta go swim.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

fredwilson — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 18:32:42 -0000

i worry about anyone or any party having absolute power. it corrupts.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

JLM — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 18:26:50 -0000

I am nothing if not honest. I do not favor Obama but I must agree with you that the election is looking over to me just now. Even in my pessimism I must remember that 3 weeks is an eternity in politics. The only unfathomable seems to be the potential for a racial backlash a la the Bradley Effect.

I think he has won a GQ election --- long style and short substance. But a win is a win.

McCain does not seem to be a candidate that can find a good camera angle (short, bad skin, too white, thin white hair, a bit crippled) and Obama is quite an extraordinarily telegenic presence. He wins on appearance, cool, voice and youth. Romney was my guy but he never really got the traction he needed because of McCain's experience running a nationwide campaign and his perceived strength in foreign affairs. I think Romney would have given Obama a better run in front of the camera.

A good friend of mine who is a retired NBA all star made the observation that Obama looks and moves like a basketball player and my friend thinks that is the least threatening black visage in America. I told him he was prejudiced and he agreed. Interesting observation, Obama is a good looking guy.

This is shaping up to be a generational change election like the succession between Eisenhower and Kennedy. While Kennedy defeated Nixon in front of a very unforgiving camera, the more striking observation is that a 5-star General handed over the Presidency to a Lt (jg). Talk about generational change. Bush, unfortunately, is no Eisenhower.

I am beginning to work on my tax minimization strategy. I am planning a flight from ordinary income to "financing proceeds" and "deferred comp" as a way to minimize my future tax bite. I suspect rates will stay low for a pretty long time and that will be a boost. In any event, I am planning to make Obama work pretty hard to get another dollar of taxes from me. I only need to hang on for a few years until rates come back down.

I truly fear the combination of Obama and a Democratic Congress (which is still in doubt but more likely given the coattails impact) as I would fear any party having complete control over the entire apparatus of government. I worry what mischief an unchecked Dodd, Frank, Clinton and Schumer could create. We shall see.

The Republicans have nobody to blame but themselves. They spent like drunken sailors and they failed to stomp out corruption within their own ranks. They failed to follow their own avowed principles.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

fredwilson — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 17:58:16 -0000

Because the other choice is way worse

John McCain is more of the same, the same bad policies on foreign policy (interventionist), fiscal (tax cuts for the rich leading to huge budget deficits), social (mandating what women can and can't do with their bodies), health care (do nothing but continue the status quo), and so on and so on.

But we won't agree on this one. We both get to vote, as will the rest of America.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

fredwilson — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 06:27:10 -0000

I don't think we'll have to worry about that now. Obama is closing the deal
with the voters now. I can feel it.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

jackson — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 21:20:07 -0000

Bill Maher has a running gag on his show where each week they showcase a country you might want to move to should McCain win the election. I wonder what the emigration stats are over the past eight years.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

ChaaiChaai — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:34:23 -0000

Another issue with America is that the lack of knowledge on global scale.

People don't know what is the news in other states, forget about other countries.

All they watch is Weather channel if it rains tomorrow and this weekend or if the freeway to my work is free or not and the local sports.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

JRS — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 14:37:14 -0000

So wrong: “Fortunately, the younger generation intuitively understands what kind of world we live in and is ready to back a true thinker as the leader of the free world by a 2:1 margin.” - K. Dimitrov.

Rather than showing any intuitive insight, the younger generation is predictably gravitating toward the abstraction of “change” and the most masterfully branded political candidate since JFK, and perhaps in US history. The naïve appeal of redistributionist economic policies to those who have yet to feel the true burden of taxes and who are too young to remember the debilitating effect that high taxes and overly redistributionist policies had in the 1970s is, sadly, no surprise.

And so right: “Clinton presided over the low hanging fruit left behind by RWR and his third term, GHWB. The Republican Congress had more than a little to do with this. He sopped up the last drop of Reagan's leadership and managed not to screw it up.” - JLW.

The prosperity over which Clinton presided was the direct product of the seeds of economic growth sown decades earlier by Reagan in the form of lower taxes and smaller government. The positive effects of those policies cascaded for years to come and Clinton was smart — and moderate — enough to avoid screwing it up. The damage a truly liberal redistributionist president — paired with a Democratic congress — will do to our economy could last for a generation in the form of slower economic growth, higher unemployment, and reduced global competitiveness

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

JLM — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 11:19:54 -0000

The characterization of Obama as either "professorial" or "intellectual' is not how I would describe him at all. I taught civil engineering for a year at West Point and enjoyed it thoroughly. I think most folks like teachers. I do.

I spent a delightful 2-hour lunch with Obama when his candidacy was a fledling endeavor. [I owned a big catering company and did huge numbers of fundraisers. I had the chance to meet and dine w/ Bradley, Kerry, Dean, Obama, Hill, Bill, Alberto, etc. The candidates always eat before the event so they can speak and shmooze with the donors. I used to bring them very nice food (everybody else was eating chicken) and keep them company as they ate. I actually know next to nothing about catering, this was an investment of mine.]

I only shared this with you because my observations were made in an unguarded moment without all of the window dressing of a political campaign.

I think that Obama is a "street smart" kind of guy. In his books, he portrays an earthy knowledge of a bit of the underbelly of life which I frankly find quite appealing. He is very, very clever like a "punter" who knows that that horse's cough means he will not be able to sprint up that last hill at Cheltenham. He is a very focused and ambitous man who sincerely sees the world with a bit of class warfare coloring his view --- given his background, why not?

His delivery of the message is better than the message itself. And, he is a cautious but deliberate risk taker. I also think he is unafraid of failure on a personal level. He is a product of a deliberate and certainly corrupt effort to fashion a resume and career from the Chicago political engine. Of course, that is all he had to work with. The associations with Ayres, Rezko, Wright --- not even noteworthy in that environment and perhaps that is why he took so long to deal with them effectively.

The cleverness of his personality shows up in his Illinois voting record --- present but not really engaged. And, in his teaching at Chicago Law School. His students found him to be very, very engaging but his work was always just an adjunct to his political plans. He is not a scholar.

The street wisdom shows up in the manner in which he wrested his State Senate seat from his opponents. He did it primarily through litigation. His "ground game" is right out of the ACORN playbook. He has no problem with ACORN registering and extracting votes from folks who might otherwise not participate in our democracy.

He is exactly what his life story says --- a clever street smart ambitous articulate fellow sent to Occidental, Columbia and Harvard where he acquired a degree of polish and connections which enables him to operate on a very, very high level. Intellectual? No. Clever --- hell yes!

His most valuable characteristic is that he is immensely LUCKY! I don't suggest he has not deserved nor made his own luck but he is damn lucky. Fitzgerald, Keyes, Hillary, Bush, McCain --- way lucky in his opponents.

McCain does worry me a bit. Having been to a military school myself, I understand fully the intensely competitive environment and it is a legitimate concern as to what his performance at Annapolis really means. For McCain it was the family business and he was not as concerned about his Annapolis record (his Dad a 4-star Admiral was also pretty close to being the "goat") because he knew the business. He knew he would do well once he got to the Fleet. Kind of like Ted Kennedy not worrying about whether he might be successful in politics, eh?

The military is the fiercest meritocracy on the planet. A Bridagier General is the top 0.001% of his year group and some of his competitors were combat losses. McCain always knew he would do well in the Navy, he was born to it. He is unafraid of things which would paralyze others because he learned them at the kitchen table.

I am a pilot (a very cautious and risk averse pilot --- old pilots, bold pilots, no old bold pilots) and it does worry me that McCain was a bit of a hot shot as a pilot. However, that is the skill set required to go downtown when the downtown was Hanoi. The Navy pilots are the very best in the world bar none. Does his record with planes suggest he might have been a bit reckless? You bet.

It might be useful to know that when you destroy (other than in combat) a plane or other expensive piece of equipment, there is a board of inquiry and the matter is looked into very closely. McCain had three non-combat aircraft losses and he was cleared all three times.

Among pilots, there would be a begrudging acknowledgement that McCain was able to put the planes down in safe locations and extricate himself. This is the "good crash" test of flying. He gets very high marks for that.

McCain's experience as a POW is a marking experience which is beyond most folks threshold level of horror to understand. Survival is the only useful level of measurement. Surviving that horror puts a kind of iron in a man's soul and psyche that cannot be bent by normal challenges of every day life. Once upon a time, we used to joke --- what are they going to do, make us 2nd Lts and send us to Viet Nam?

In the end, I so disagree with Obama on the issues and am so concerned by his lack of governing experience that I find myself defaulting to McCain. It is a simple binary decision.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

fredwilson — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:17:15 -0000

JLM has joined the list of super smart people I don't agree with but respect. Its a long list

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

bernardlunn — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:53:36 -0000

Thank you for saying "we've lost our morals and values". This is true for all of us, not just the poster boys of greed that parade before the media at a time like this. The subprime crisis, which is core here, was started by everybody being "economical with the truth" staring with the home buyer. We won't get anything useful out of this if we try to find the blame only in others.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

Guest — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:39:50 -0000

great comment.
I don't mean to diminish the human capital in China, because it is indeed great, but still like America's better. It's the difference between dedication to work (USA) and sense of duty (China); self-discipline (USA) vs. obedience (China); focus on the goal (USA) vs. focus on the effort (China)
That's, frankly, a generalization and a personal opinion, but that's how I feel

On the issue of religiousness you have more insight than the former prime minister of Britain...

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

Guest — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 05:28:39 -0000

JLM
Thanks. Disagreeing on issues is what this democracy is all about and I completely respect your disagreement with Obama's policy proposals. What scares me most is this right-wing propaganda that somehow Obama being "professorial", "intellectual" etc. is something that Americans have to be scared of and they are better off with the guy who graduated fifth from the bottom in his class and crashed five planes during his training, just because he has "experience" and "leadership".

Cheers!

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

JLM — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:40:39 -0000

Actually Bloomberg took the business world (and his equity) with him and I attribute much of his success to his pragmatic business approach

At some level of wealth (and it's not too damn high) one begins to be paid in a different currency. I can honestly say that I have owned a few businesses which I would have paid for the privilege to own. They rewarded me with a different currency and it took me a while to understand that fact.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

JLM — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:27:30 -0000

LOL, so when will Obama be coming to paint my house?

On a more serious note, I must admit that with enough consultation and assistance from his Columbia and Harvard brethren (and a quick trip to Home Depot), I think Obama could probably do an adequate job of painting my house! Plus because he's tall, he could reach into the the corners of the eaves.

Unfortunately, we are a Nation with two wars and an economy on life support just now so some real world experience and leadership ability might actually come in handy.

You misinterpret what I say if you think I ridicule intellect. Even in a house painter, I would prefer and respect a smart house painter. It is only Obama's policies and stands on the issues with which I disagree. I disagree with his judgments only. I think his sense of raising taxes on capital gains is the equivalent of bleeding a patient with leeches. A discredited medical procedure only.

I do find him on a personal basis to be a bit of a fakir and a poseur but I am really only interested in his ability to govern and lead.

I doubt that much of what Obama or McCain proposes has even a remote chance of being enacted given the magnitude of the funding necessary to salvage the economy. That sucking sound? That was the prospect of any tax cuts going down the drain! Sad but true. Talk about glorifying ignorance, eh?

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

JLM — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 02:08:19 -0000

Recent experience appears to value "thinkers" not so much, eh? Wall Street has been able for years to buy as much talent and brainpower as the best business and law schools can offer up and yet when it came apart at the seams, it was a simple failure of confidence which cracked the foundation. A lack of confidence in the leadership. A lack of confidence in the products that Wall Street had designed. An old fashioned run on the bank. Nonetheless, there was no shortage of thinking going on but there was a huge void in experience and principled business ethics. It was a failure of leadership at both the regulatory level and in the auction house.

Today the world is moving so fast that nobody really has 20 years of experience any more. More appropriately --- one year of experience twenty times. The patterns of experience are not so evident or obvious any more. Therefore the truly useful patterns of experience are, like chaos theory, based upon the set of conditions that exist before the random walk actually leaves the station. All experience does is to remind one to check the fuel tank before taking off and to remember to set up the problem for a real solution.

The thinking necessary to explore all of the alternative solutions can literally be outsourced. The world is full of bright folks who can identify problems and propose solutions. Many of whom cannot chew gum and walk at the same time.

Even in politics, it requires someone who has the moxie to manage the team as it lurches toward a solution, articulate the solution, sell it to his own team and ultimately sell it to the public. Obama did just that when he figured out how to beat Hillary Clinton. He found a fellow who had run campaigns, particulary campaigns with black candidates, and tasked him to fashion a strategy necessary to win. David Axelrod did just that.

Bill Clinton would be not even a footnote in history but for a very short fellow with very big ears and a crew cut. H Ross Perot took 18% in the first election and 8% in the second election thereby providing Bill Clinton with a job by default. The "best retail politician of his generation" was not a bit more than the product of a pin hole in a condom. He was a surprise President by any assessment.

Clinton presided over the low hanging fruit left behind by RWR and his third term, GHWB. The Republican Congress had more than a little to do with this. He sopped up the last drop of Reagan's leadership and managed not to screw it up. He spent his time worrying about gays in the military and left the American economic ship on its same azimuth. He was rewarded with continuing prosperity and restrained spending thanks to the Republican Congress. The ironic thing is that had Newt Gingrich not shut down the government, he and Monica might never have met and Clinton's visage might even now be being carved on Mt Rushmore. LOL

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

JLM — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 01:29:53 -0000

I fear that campaigning is not the same as governing and does not test any of the theories of governing that a candidate espouses. Hitler, after all, was elected overwhelmingly as Chancellor of Germany but his governance left a bit to be desired. He was an awesome campaigner but a bit hollow on the character issues?

I don't think any fair person could find fault with Obama's campaigning skills after all that is the majority of his recent experience. I find fault with his policies. I find him to be a poseur of the worst kind.

Kind of like the guy with the perfect business plan who has never run a company or made a product. Can you trust him to get the job done? Why even take the chance?

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

Guest — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 00:45:34 -0000

Back after a cup of coffee, and this last response does not read very well. I'll try something different.

Suppose you need a house painted.
Case A: You have an experienced painter; he has done this many times, knows how to work his crew, knows where the potential problems are. He sets up his team, gives them specific instructions, watches them carefully and gets the job done.
Case B: You have a recent Ph.D. graduate who has never painted a house and doesn't want to spent money on a professional crew. He buys a DIY book from Home Depot and reads it carefully. Calls a few of his friends from college to help, thinks the job through, makes a sketch or something, goes by the book. Do you think they can do it? Well many of my friends did exactly that with their first houses.

The reciprocal is completely out of the question, though. An "experienced" painter would never be able to lead a software development project, to design a clinical study for a new drug, to analyze the data from the study, etc. etc.

Now, here are my questions: which one is Obama and which one is McCain? And what do the problems facing the next president look more like?

So no, folks, don't fall for these "experience" and "leadership" platitudes. McCain's experience has no bearing whatsoever on his ability to lead the free world forward. We need a smart person who knows how to think properly. JLM's example is just the typical Republican spin of glorifying ignorance and ridiculing intellect.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

Guest — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 23:09:57 -0000

Yep, Krassen Dimitrov wrecked America, it's on the news:))
Seriously, though, I have understanding for the argument. Please, accept my thoughts as observations rather than judgements.

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

Ed — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 22:54:37 -0000

Yes, there was a more thoughtful way to express your opinion Claude,
and though I'm over simplifying, the original post does smack of
the girl who rushes the door at Filene's Wedding Gown sale, grabs a beauty,
sees on the news that night the wreckage left behind, and despite participating
in taking far more than giving, has the self absorbed gall to say
"place sucks, what a dump, glad I'm not going back there".

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

Guest — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 22:06:05 -0000

Thanks for putting this upfront and for the comments. A few brief responses:

Steve Kane: Fear is not the root of the problems here. It is a symptom that manifests rather late, and I agree that it is undesirable and must be treated for what it is. However, the root causes must be addressed.

MassMan: American dominance in the world is not so much a Strength; it is more of an intrinsic feature that is both a strength and a weakness (or neither). Switzerland has always been detached and has always done well. By being dominant you gain something, and you lose something, too.
Also, the natural resources are relative. US is not resource-pure, but I wouldn't list resources as a particular strength, as is the case with other countries: Australia, Canada, Brazil, Russia, The Arab Peninsula. In any case relying on natural resources to get out of this morass is a lost cause.

JLM: an interesting but irrelevant anecdote. "Thinkers" are not omnipotent deities, so there are probably countless anecdotes like yours. What fails a thinker is two things: "overthinking" a simple situation or trying to think "on empty", without the data (or "solving underdetemined problem"). Today's world is both complex and flooded with easily accessible data: it needs a "thinker" to lead it. Fortunately, the younger generation intuitively understands what kind of world we live in and is ready to back a true thinker as the leader of the free world by a 2:1 margin.

'experience" and "leadership" are platitudes. Experience is nothing but pattern recognition: matching a current situation to something that one has already been through. Obviously it works in situations where you have stable recurring patterns, but there are much more advanced heuristics that one can employ rather than relying on that.
Leadership is meaningless. Bill Clinton presided over the golden era of America and created more jobs than the Bush I, Bush II and Reagen administrations COMBINED. Yet he was a weak character, far divorced by what many consider "strong leader". Smart policies matter much more than some undefined "leadership".

Thanks again!

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

fredwilson — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 21:58:16 -0000

Please leave out the nastiness

I reblogged his comment so I found it valuable

Re: A SWOT Analysis On America

fredwilson — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 21:47:12 -0000

It wasn't my SWOT, it was a comment on my blog that I reblogged because I
liked it