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Thoughts on Blackberry Fail
I don't think CBS has interfered with Last.fm so much to date--the original team is still there and I've heard they are largely still calling the shots. The monetization for Last.fm comes from referring people to Amazon and iTunes, so it will be interesting to see if they add audio ads as well. I think there's an inherent problem with sending traffic to iTunes too--there's a chance they won't come back! Apple's Genius Playlist currently only plays content from your own library, but this could easily change.
I'd bet that the success of streaming radio via Yahoo and AOL (and Pandora and Last.fm) has shown the media companies that it's possible to work with this audio trend rather than against it.
However, pursuant to the Webcaster Settlement Act (passed in Sep), a new, cheaper royalty rate supposedly is close to being / has been negotiated b/n DiMA (which represents webcasters) and Soundexchange (which collects webcaster royalties). So CBS's moves may well prove savvy given a new set of economics.
Yahoo! will hand over the reins of its webcasting pioneer property LAUNCHcast Radio to CBS Radio next year, the companies announced today. The reason, according to Yahoo! Music chief Michael Spiegelman: royalties.
“Because of the unfavorable rates, we didn’t think it made sense to invest in the product,” he told the Associated Press.
In video, we're seeing a clear trend from streaming video (television programming) to on-demand, presumably because viewers want to choose exactly what they watch, when. Why would it be different for audio?
(I suspect this might have to do with the fact that there is a discrete amount of videos we want to watch at any given time, while musical tastes are much more open/dynamic and people are always willing to listen to new music that fits in with their preferences).
And if playlists are sufficiently niche or personalized, streaming audio is prob preferable to having to go hunt-and-peck for a new track or album every X minutes; you can just sit back, be lazy and be programmed to.
background" experience. It's great to have someone else play the music for
you
In this new interview with radio research consultant Mark Ramsey - Seth Godin expresses that he thinks that method is old, tired and doomed.
http://tinyurl.com/6z4oqp
As a guy who works in broadcasting - I believe far more in Seth's vision.
But, I also know the Radio Industry. Our leader's obsession with the :60 spot mirrors the Record Label's obsession with the CD.
As for the CBS owned and operated stations (or those of any other radio company) migrating online: if listeners feel this way about radio, why would they want to listen to a stream of the same crap on the internet? Outside of the constantly changing content of news/talk radio, there seems little reason to listen to the same product merely moved to a new medium.
So then have they at least hit paydirt by acquiring these online services? Doubtful. It's not enough to buy up a bunch of internet infrastructure and set your sales force loose like a pack of rabid dogs. Listeners aren't dumb -- they demand content...good content. And as Godin says, they want to feel wanted again, not yelled at and interrupted by commercials and traffic reports.
I sense that terrestrial radio won't know what to do with internet radio, they won't give it the creative energy necessary to win listeners, and they won't know how to monetize it correctly.
If TargetSpot is positioned to thrive in this environment, is it able to fill 100% of its partners' inventory at an eCPM (to the streaming provider) that exceeds $2.00? This may be "someday scenario," but it strikes me as a propos of this comment thread to "show the math" on how a mid-sized or large (non CBS-subsidized) streaming audio provider can actually recoup -- affiliate links to Amazon (a shiny nickel per-track sold) and Amazon CDs (small dollars on each CD sale) will not back into a meaningful eCPM, and "sit back and let it play" makes display ads a tough sell. If TargetSpot is yielding in excess of $2.00 CPMs for its partners, then great and streamed audio will flourish.
Note that "eCPM" is actually an inadequate metric, since it better-reflects page view-like impressions. Streams can last for hours, and mercilessly demand royalties regardless of true user engagement (unlike page views, where one page can sit open for an hour and register one impression, by comparison).
If there is definitive math that shows how [revenue - (royalties + bandwidth)] > $0, that would say to me that streaming audio has "turned a corner" and an ecosystem of many participants can thrive. If the aforementioned equation still produces a negative number, then CBS' assumption of others' streams is like the Fed assuming banks' debt until "the market works itself out," and that's not a self-sufficient model.