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Thoughts on Blackberry Fail
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Come in here dear boy
Have a cigar
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except, of course, that the recent counterbalance of digital
democracy in power has changed who should be getting the cigar.
Ok, enough soothsaying. Back to work.
Additionally, distributed user controlled downloadable asset distribution is a dangerous pandora's box that many traditional media properties are hesitant to open. If they let go of content distribution, then Revelie (productions) will be able to bypass NBC and bring much of their own content direct to users, generating significantly greater ad revenue for themselves as they will have bypasses a fairly significant middleman (this hypothecial takes place 30 years in the future when broadcast TV and IPTV are operating on equal planes).
For more check out my post on this today at http://jburg.typepad.com/future/2007/09/when-us....
p.s. I vote for the old comments system back. Threading is nice, but I can never see who actually made the comments unless I click the link to the full thread on disqus.
It is sure that NBC "Universal" will block other countries from their online videos. As a Canadian consumer that receives and pays for all the same American TV channels and more often than not, with American ads, this does not make any business sense. Every American channel I receive on the TV always have a "not available in your region" message instead of playing video.
After that, they complain that there is too much piracy in Canada. No wonder why... They just don't get it. Youtube and other pure online companies do not do that. If they want to win online, they'll have to learn.
Hugely successful hugely profitable huge companies simply do not slaughter their cash cows, no matter how terrifying the future may look. For one thing, they're only human, and they have so much to lose. For another, they are responsible humans -- responsible to their shareholders, most of whom, i dare say, would rebel (e.g. sell off their holdings) if management suddenly announced that revenues, margins and earnings don't matter (a peculiar luxury we in the startup world take for granted.)
a well managed media titan will never careen helter skelter into the future (and besides, who will we take potshots at if they do?) rather, it will look for defensive strategies plus incremental change plus a highly liquid, high valued stock to use as a currency for opportunistic M&A moves when the fog clears from time to time
My prediction - they'll spend millions of dollars, and people will continue to record the shows off the air and digitize them, and they'll impose ever more onerous conditions on the free downloads because "our content is being pirated"
Do NBC have the ability to monetize via ad placements outside of the US?
What about when the ads get old? They need replacing - that's why the timeout makes sense.