A VC - Latest Comments in In Times Like These Read The Blogs

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

Benjamin — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 14:17:20 -0000

Hi Fred,

I have just received this link through a friend: http://www.fnarena.com/inde...
On why Citi could be the next Wall Street giant to fall. It's interesting though I don't totally agree with the analysis.

Benjamin

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

johnbougearel — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 02:22:10 -0000

Indeed, things have been interesting on the financial blogs. So, if it is links you want, here are several links to browse.

First, the always excellent and highly relevant posts by Chris Whalen - the Institutional Risk Analyst at
http://us1.institutionalris...
posts his Interview with Bob Feinberg.on Bear Stearns, FNM, FRE, and much much more. This should be considered a must read for those wishing a deeper understanding of the crises that confront us.

Also, there were several noteworthy guest bloggling posts at TradingGoddess.com's blog this weekend beginning with a very lively discussion in the comment section on whether or not the market is broken. at http://tradinggoddess.blogs...

That discussion led to a post by SuccessfulTradingTips.com author John Bougearel on "what is a Mandelbrot Moment, elaborates on those moments when all financial models (be they quant, technical, or fundamental) fail to adequately quantify market risks and behaviors. http://tradinggoddess.blogs...

Right after that post, Bob, author of StockPicksBob'sAdvice.com elaborated on the share price destruction not just of Bear Stearns, but C, WM, MER, ABK, MBI etc...

http://tradinggoddess.blogs...

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

John McGrath — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 21:37:30 -0000

Fred, I agree with you and druce. Just feels like there has been an inordinate amount of criticism of the Times lately, not all of it deserved.

In addition to their own coverage the Times should itself be pointing readers to outside experts. They're doing this in the technology section via blogrunner, why not extend that to business and other sections. Invite the best bloggers into the cathedral. It would help the Times maintain their status as go-to news source, even in a world that demands multiple sources.

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

Jim Peake — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 21:09:33 -0000

In times like these some people are accountable (i.e. Eliot Spitzer...about to be) and others aren't (i.e. who has gone to jail for the subprime mess)? With so many smart people on Wall Street how could these big banks get in so much trouble? Greed?

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

fredwilson — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 18:42:04 -0000

The people who write the stories in the Times are very unlikely to have been running a large hedge fund or trading desk when LTCM happened. Its a lot more likely to find a blogger who was (like Roger)

I didn't mean to imply that The NY Times is bad. I read it. I just think they don't have and can't give me the experienced perspective I want in times like this

Fred

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

fredwilson — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 18:42:03 -0000

Wow. I never knew that howard. Thanks for sharing it with us

Fred

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

JustSemantics — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 16:19:23 -0000

I don't think the Fed is bailing anyone out. You could read the story as "Bernanke confirms that Bear is toast -- gives partners 28 days to find replacement."

The big problem is that highly leveraged funds that invested in sub-prime also invested in other stuff. To cover their positions, they've got to sell the other stuff. Which forces other leveraged investors to sell, even if they never went near mortgages. You might think your assets have nothing to do with sub-prime. But if any sub-prime investor also invested in your asset, you're at risk of seeing it go down in price, rapidly and somewhat mysteriously.

Smart investors will be ready to double down on positions they believe in. But it could get very painful before things hit bottom.

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

Dick Costolo — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 13:57:44 -0000

Roger is one of those people whom, if he agrees with something you say, your immediate next thought is "wow, i must be right!". Of course, maybe that's just me.

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

Druce — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 12:11:09 -0000

The Times Bear story was embarrassing... "By late Thursday, Bear Stearns’s top lenders and its hedge fund clients were calling the firm and demanding their cash back, perhaps encouraged by Mr. Schwartz’s comments that the firm’s capital and liquidity were strong." (rather because they didn't believe him) "shied away from trendy markets like Internet stocks in the 1990s." (more like shut out of the GS/MS/Frank Quattrone deals so chased the crappiest of the crappy)

One expects a lot of the Times and sometimes they don't deliver. Sometimes, their power handcuffs them because they can't call a spade a spade and say the Bear might be done, sometimes their breadth handcuffs them and they have to cover something where the reporter is out of his depth. And in most of the business section, sadly they're pretty overmatched.

On these controversial/specialist topics the blogs are a bit more than just complementary. What happened to that long bet between Winer and Nisenholtz?

http://www.longbets.org/2

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

John McGrath — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 11:55:34 -0000

Ehrenberg's post is great, but I disagree with your implication that blogs get it right more often than professional news organizations. I'm tired of NYTimes bashing. They're not perfect, but they get it right more consistently than anyone else, and their long term investigative stories stories are more valuable than ever in an increasingly reactive, ADD media world.

The rise of the blogosphere has been game changing, mostly in a good way. But the blogosphere is complimentary to, rather than at at odds with, the Times, in which I continue to place more trust than the any other source.

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

A. Gilbert — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 10:17:00 -0000

Easiest way to find lot's of financial bloggers (including money managers and influential bloggers like Michael Arrington) is to use SeekingAlpha (www.seekingalpha.com).

The blogosphere will always cover more viewpoints and stocks than any one financial site and SeekingAlpha collects many of them in one location.

I love it!

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

C. Maoxian — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 21:17:04 -0000

I posted Bear's monthly stock chart since it went public in 1985 ... gives some long-term perspective on its collapse:

http://maoxian.com/archive/...

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

Rob Long — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 17:55:55 -0000

I love this. For people like me, who have only a dim, shallow understanding of this kind of finance, it's akin to finding yourself at a dinner party, next to a super-smart expert in something you've always wanted to know about but never quite grasped. One of the great things about the social web is that it rewards curiosity, and when stuff hits the fan, or there's a big, seminal event (a Wall Street collapse; a Hollywood writers strike in my case) the web just crackles like a Fourth of July sparkler with smart insight. I've bookmarked Roger Ehrenberg's blog; I'll go back, probably more than a few times while this current meltdown keeps melting (it can't last forever. Can it?) but I probably won't make it a regular stop, like Fred's or Marc's blog. But how cool that it's there, ready, waiting. Faster, more personal, more real somehow than a newspaper.

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

Jeremy Luebke — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 17:00:43 -0000

This recession (and yes I think it will / does qualify as a full blown recession) will be like no other the US has ever seen. The internet and the (semi) global economy it has created coupled with the dirt cheap cost of entry and operating costs I believe will make for an interesting counter balance to the downward term.

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

vruz — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 16:58:04 -0000

thanks for your insight, Howard

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

howardlindzon — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 16:19:56 -0000

Roger's posts are always execellent because he has been on th field. Blodget's link ws a good one too.

Here is my input. it's a tough week for too many innocent people.

http://howardlindzon.com/?p...

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

vruz — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 13:51:04 -0000

What could this possibly mean to the web industry ?
I've read some blogs saying the web and videogames industries have been largely unaffected by the current developments.
Can this be believed after BSC goes down (as it seems it will likely be the case) ?

Re: In Times Like These Read The Blogs

Druce — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 13:33:18 -0000

Times story is embarrassing - Felix Salmon is pretty good.

http://www.portfolio.com/ne...

the firm that took theglobe.com and Earthweb public is not as smart as everyone thought...who'da thunk it.