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Thoughts on Blackberry Fail
Are you referring to MS as the new wrong leadership, or are you saying the leadership (if it had stayed) would be bad?
And jerry might not be the right person because he may not be up to the operational challenges that lay in front of yahoo
That said, I think yahoo would fare better under jerry's leadership, no matter how flawed, than ballmer's
Fred
They proved they could pull a brilliant strategy when put under pressure.
They should be more proactive and creative ? yes, no doubt about it.
But the operative skills are there, I think.
" 'Yahoo makes search and ad deal with Google worth up to $800 million.' This is terrific news for YHOO, GOOG, and thw web"
I can see how it's good news for Yahoo! and for Google, but how is this good for the web? Having any single player control that much of a market has historically stifled competition. While Larry and Sergey are at the helm I can't realistically see Google becoming "evil", but what happens when they're no longer calling the shots and the company still dominates the market?
While the partnership isn't "bad" news for the web as a whole, it should definitely give everyone cause for concern.
Look at what its doing to cable, wireless, microsoft, the record industry
I don't worry about google owning search. If they start messing around with us, we'll switch to something that doesn't
Fred
I guess I'm still trying to see how this was good for the web at large?
-Wayne
As tim orielly says, think of web apps (and google search is the biggest web app) as pieces of the open internet operating system
Each piece may 'own' its category but nobody owns the operating system and if the piece starts being suboptimal, it will get replaced over time
Fred
Since doing search at Google's level requires massive investment in data centers and the top people to run them (sounds like massive investment in national wireless facilities and the people to run them), who ya gonna switch to?
And I don't agree with your statement on wireless carriers. GSM and number portability makes wireless carriers a commodity
Fred
Yahoo has huge scale across all its properties and with the right leadership YHOO is still in an amazing position. Now that it's clear it isn't selling, I hope new leadership is in place pretty quickly. Sadly it seems the ability to do anything quickly is not among the skill set of current leadership, but like you, I don't think that's a reason to sell the asset.
http://ycorpblog.com/2008/06/12/our-google-deal
He says a) they only plan to run Google ads for queries where Yahoo! has low coverage and b) that they plan to use Google's money to reinvest in search monetization. Maybe that's just a statement to avoid anti-competitive pressures, but if you take Jerry's words at face value, he still intends to devote significant resources to search and is not freeing up resources to focus on other areas.
This is the problem with Yahoo! in my opinion. They never seem to pick an area of focus. Instead, they try to compete in nearly every lucrative vertical on the web. If they were completely outsourcing search to Google so they could focus on other opportunities (or selling just search to Microsoft), I would support the deal. If they are just outsourcing tail terms, I don't see how that frees up resources. What exactly are they focused on? Seems to me like they are still spreading their resources across search, content, social media, mobile, commerce, display ads, and every other attractive vertical under the sun. They're spread thin like... uh, peanut butter.
I hope things change. I hate Microsoft, but I still love Yahoo! It just pains me that they can't seem to pick a direction for the company and commit to it fully. They're still hedging their bets. I have no doubt that they can turn things around if they would just choose what they want to be when they grow up.
How could it be anything less? That's a pretty bold statement to make with GOOG cutting a Y1 check near $500MM.
Why do I feel people have been saying that about Yahoo! for years ... oh because they have.
I think a lot of what you said is true, leaning up operations, focusing the business, but cedeing search?
They've invested a ton of cash into monetizing search - the stocks dip hasn't reflected the real loss from this deal quite yet.
Not to mention the grief Carl + his merry pirates will bring.
Mike Arrington is dead wrong on this one.
One would wonder what's his rationale to support his case, given that Yahoo stock is about 20% up from 6 months before, have met all of their financial deadlines and have a promising deal with Google.
The only reasonable point of view I can imagine is Mike is either a friend of Icahn or Ballmer, or he has stock he would like to profit from.
Instead of attempting to rationalise irrational gut feeling, it would be much easier to say it plainly he just doesn't like it.
"Yahoo shuns Microsoft and partners with Google"
The company expects to generate between $250 to $450 million in operating cash flow once the deal gets the blessing of the Justice Department, which could take up to 3-1/2 months. The deal is expected to run up to ten years.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/12/technology/yaho...
...
You can pretty much tell on which side of the equation Arrington is, as per CNN's definition.
Yahoo needed to concede defeat in the search market because it was killing them elsewhere. So this is good for the web, although bad for YHOO shareholders (because selling @ $33 is better than trading @ $24).
My reasoning: Your YHOO link goes to Google Finance. Five years ago it would have gone to Yahoo! Finance. And that's not (really) a search product.
(Yes, I'm ignoring the fact that 50% of their stock would be bought with MSFT stock.)
Autos, Personals, Pets, Real Estate, many international offices, answers, games, hotjobs, movies, music, OMG, Travel, TV, Yellow Pages, Shopping, Shine, Horoscopes, Weather, Small Business
Stuff I might keep: Sports, Finance (these are highly profitable homepages)
Stuff I would invest in: Mail, Messenger, Mobile, Groups, Delicious, Flickr, Local/Maps, Search, My, Yahoo.com, Buzz, display ads
Companies I would buy: Xobni ;), Disqus (for reasons different than you might think),
Deals I would do: Google Search
Deals I would kill: AT&T and the other Carrier Deals
In the short term, it would hurt, and probably kill half of the revenue. But profit margins would be way up, and then the company could focus and start growing again.
I was at Yahoo! roughly the same time as you, but frankly, I'm not clear what Yahoo!'s core competencies are (competencies as opposed to assets like Sports, Flickr, Mail, etc). The media properties are set up as content businesses that require editorial expertise and original content. Search is a technical business built on machines, data, and algorithms. Community sites require deep understanding of people and social interaction. Not only do these various divisions require unique competencies, but in many cases, the competencies are at odds with each other. For example, it's hard to convince customers that you offer unbiased search when you also promote your own original content. I think Yahoo! can compete in any number of verticals, but they first need to identify what they hope to bring to those industries in terms of core competencies.
I'm curious... why Disqus? I love the service. Just wondering what you would do with it at Yahoo!?
Also per Joe's comment about Yahoo needing to pick a competency I think they should go after the more social/community aspects - ultimately Yahoo! could/should be best at knowing what I'm up to and what I like on the web, ie: who do I contact the most via email, what topics am I most interested in via bookmarks, what movies did I recently see, who are my favorite sports teams, what are my recent statuses via IM, etc....and then help me find people/things I'd be interested in based on that past activity.
Jerry and Sue should start watching reruns of Cheers and do whatever they can to turn Yahoo! into a place where everybody (you care about) knows your name.
who says every company out there has to excel at search ???
that's just the wrongheaded idea Ballmer has tried to sell.
in any case it's a Microsoft capitulation more than a Yahoo capitulation.
Semel who ?
Semel is no longer on board as far as I know.
Morale below the floor at Yahoo ? Have you checked morale at Microsoft ?
Do you think bringing in the *lowest* morale ever will help Yahoo ?
you're so wrong it's not even funny.
do you know how high is the rate of failure in systems development ?
failure is the NORM. you learn. you adjust. you move on.
would you rather like them insisting in a failed strategy ?
Fred
I remember reading somewhere, way back when, that Amazon tipped because Yahoo! made it the Yahoo! Site of the Day. I always wondered if Wikipedia could have happened 5x faster if it were given similar treatment.
Imagine if Yahoo! had a stake in startup ecommerce sites (Zappos, Diapers.com) or user-gen startups (Yelp) when they were still early-stage. Yahoo! provides the A-round and operational support and let the startup get the proof-of-concept up and running and the social infrastructure in place to handle traffic. Then Yahoo! steps in again, focusing it's traffic hose on their investment.
Search isn't a part of that strategy, but cashing search out is. So I hope that's where Yahoo! goes.
it's unclear what's its current state since Salim Ismail left back in February.
I worked at MSFT for 10 years, and have now left to be an entrepreneur. I understand the Anti-MSFT sentiment, but here I think this emotion has so clouded rationality that the discussion has become pretty
Rather than railing on Arrington, let's pose a simple question...
Who on this blog (author or commenters) would put a sizeable amount of the present net worth in YHOO stock? It's cheap now, and by whatever thesis there is in the crowd here, you'd have to say there's only one way for the stock to go, and that's UP.
No caveats that we get to wait for a Mark Hurd type (not that he's the guy) to ride in and turn things around...
Any takers? I'd be selling.
Fred, with terms like "regroup, refocus", I think you are thinking through this situation as if Yahoo were a seed/early-stage company, in a similar manner to the types of companies that you invest in at USV. However, it's a very mature and well capitalized company and I think some of this existential angst should have been dealt with a long time ago.
I don't have a dog in this fight, but I think if YHOO needs to re-group, get leaner, etc. there's an implicit underlying statement that the market cap needs to continue it's downward trend until some baseline valuation is established. Not that I have a clue what that should be. Seems like Yahoo is conceding that it's indeed primarily a content & services company requiring a partnership (i.e. Google) to help on the revenue side. I don't think that's what has been pitched to investors for the last 10+ years, so there's still some downward correction to occur.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Yahoo go on an acquisition binge, which could be beneficial to the startup-community.
I'd rather have my money in startups, google, amazon, and apple
Fred
Despite all of Microsoft 's problems in putting together a winning online strategy, you're underestimating the value of Microsoft's OS monopoly, the strength of the .NET and Sliverlight platforms, and the company's engineering strengths.
Yahoo can build scalable and endearing web applications, but lack an obvious set of core competencies that enable it to succeed on its own. Management became bureaucratic and unfocused under Semel, with the former very hard to change. It's hard to how Yahoo is going to win marketshare or mindshare in any category, given its shortcoming and this decision to effectively sign a contract that locks it into a secondary role relative to their main competitor.
You're right- Yahoo could have done amazing things with the right leadership- but that opportunity has been lost. It's hard to see anything positive resulting from this outcome. The exodus of some of the best and brightest managers at Yahoo is the writing on the wall.
But what I do not understand is why Icahn is doing what he is doing if MS already walked away, and what are his chances to replace the board.
He may be right, and he may bring needed change, but I am pretty sure he doesn't have a plan for yahoo long term
1 - buy more YHOO when it sinks to the bottom
2 - win the board
3 - sell to MSFT for less than $30/share
In order to execute this plan, both Balmer and Icahn need to make sure that everyone else thinks that Microsoft really-really does not want to buy Yahoo. Here's how they are doing it: Icahn is trying to look nervous, to make other investors nervous and make them dump YHOO. Microsoft offered the search deal with Yahoo just to make sure they can say "we do not want to buy the whole company" one more time.
it is more productive for society as a whole to shift energy to creation, as opposed to life support
But Yahoo!'s worldwide audience is 510mm monthly visitors
That's a huge percentage of the worldwide internet audience (>60%)
It's really important what happens to Yahoo
Fred
"Now Yahoo! will do what it needs to do. Clean house, get lean, get out of businesses it shouldn’t be in. Focus on what it’s good at. And start making money and growing again."
The web isn't a zero-sum game, YHOOs inventory position is variable, taking more revenue with higher CPMs allows YHOO to invest in other aspects of their business -- these elements could make a collection of tactics add up to a successful strategy. But I think this will undermine their overall advertising position since many of the dynamics that made it difficult for them to compete in search advertising will continue to make it difficult for them in display advertising.
Fred
They don't just eyeballs, they have thousands of niche market segments organized nicely into groups, and could easily build software that helps each of those niches and market to them, and literally out-niche Microsoft, Google, etc. Semel was terrible--looked at Yahoo as an entertainment platform. But it has the best local search of the giants, best segmentation through groups, and quite a robust set of APIs and web services. With Yahoo, I'd own the small business space/SOHO market.
There is no reason for yahoo to throw in the towel
They just need to put a strategy in place that plays to their strengths and
go execute it
fred
Can anyone articulate Yahoo's strategy? Not what you think it should be but what it actually is? Can anyone tell me what Sue Decker's vision for the company is? Can anyone tell me what she's good at? Does she have great product vision?
I agree that the MSN/YHOO deal was a disasterous idea but I also think that Yahoo's current management team --- the folks that brought us Panama --- need to leave the company in order for Yahoo to be fixed. What has Sue and Jerry done since the Peanut Butter Manifesto? Answer: not enough.
and the right hand column finally loads, and jumps me up to the top again
wonder why
fred - that's too funny :))) lol
I'm a bit puzzled by Techcrunch's escalating rhetoric and mounting hysteria about this issue. Its a big deal, but they are blowing it way out of proportion with their warnings of impending doom for the Net. I notice today they have continued the rant with more new articles about it.
One has to wonder why Techcrunch is so emotionally involved in this deal-unless of course they have a lot of stock riding on it :p
It seems to me there are two issues and you guys are wrong on both counts where Arrington's got it right.
First, Yahoo's Google move proved that in terms of shareholder obligations it should have sold to MS. Yahoo cannot reasonably make a case that they will come out of the monetization hole using core values and then outsource your most lucrative biz to Google. Are you saying there is a Googley path back to $34+ per share? Nonsense.
Second, this just gives Google even more of a near monopoly on monetization. As Mike suggests competiton is lacking and needed in the search space. This is a big step in the wrong direction.
But maybe I'm just a bitter shareholder.....maybe just give me some of what you and Tim are having for lunch?
I think we just see the world differently than you and Mike do.
The great thing is we will know in a couple years who was right
fred
See if you get a chance.
See my blog for more:
http://smoothspan.wordpress.com/2008/06/14/quot...
Cheers,
BW