what else is a recession but a mental event wherein almost everybody is saying things are bad? amusing world we create for ourselves ..
andyswan
· 11 months ago
Exactly. The best remedy for a recession is to refuse to participate.
I'm sure that's not a popular notion in our newly soft victim-society....but it'll work for me!
fredwilson
· 11 months ago
I am a non participant too guys! Maybe I need to change the name of this blog. We can call it nonparticipants.com ;)
awatterson
· 11 months ago
A recession can be real if it's a retreat from false value and asset bubbles. The recession you describe only occurs when assets are being undervalued, a hard argument to make given the fundamentals that led to this downturn.
gregorylent
· 11 months ago
agree with your terms .... and, as macro-wide as we can take our vision, re-valuation is the best name to describe the next few years ... all the way to "what does it mean to be a human being" .. not exactly a subject for economists ..
awatterson
· 11 months ago
Hah. Right on, Economists are too dismal. Best leave those questions to the Philosophers.
I like the "Re-Valuation" Term.
Zach Heller
· 11 months ago
It is always good to point out the companies that seem to stand out in a bad climate. Negativity has spread far and wide, but it does not have to be the only news of the day.
Thank you.
Michael J. Pratt
· 11 months ago
1. Andy is right BUT, keep in mind that many negative effects take multiple quarters to manifest themselves in business downstream when an economy has structural issues to the extent that we do now. I am not a doomsday scenario guy but the over extension of credit to all parts of the economy phase of our lives is over, in many places for good, and that is a good thing. The problem is that many industries were able to experience abnormal double digit growth year after year because of the demand created by the leverage. That's gone now and it will take quite a bit of time to adjust all the businesses to that reality.
The bottom line to successful portfolio construction is to determine who is least negatively affected by this. Easier said than done.
gruvr music map
· 11 months ago
someone should construct a market index that calculates ratio of positive to negative posts or tweets regarding the economy... I remember a distinct turning point where you started to hear negative blips amidst wholly optimistic news, over a year ago... early warning signs.
I think we must stop worrying too much about macro and take a deep look at micro-economics behind the business under consideration. More often than not - If micro economics is strong, macro would not make too much of a difference if the company is small and focused on what it does.
Possible Jackass?
· 11 months ago
Fred, I love reading your blog! But listen, you're killing me slowly with the it's/its thing the last few posts. How I remember it: first choose between "its" and "it is". Only one will make sense in your sentence. Then shorten "it is" into "it's" if you feel like some apostrophe action.
Back to your post - last night AAPL also shattered analysts' estimates for sales and profit. There's not as much easy money lying around, but companies with innovative products will do just fine.
fredwilson
· 11 months ago
I need user based editing badly!!
Chris Dodge
· 11 months ago
Now that they both have announced quarterly results, what a difference between Apple and Microsoft! This could be the beginning of Apple's "hockey stick" moment in terms of market share of iPhone and Macs? I hope they can sustain it. I bet AAPL will eventually make a very strong push into the Corporate/Enterprise market within the next few years - that will be their next growth market. Until Windows 7 comes out - which is getting strong reviews so far - Apple has an opportunity to keep gaining market share.
I'm turning into such an Apple fanboy now. I'd better keep cracking away on Objective-C/Cocoa. Are you still sticking with Android?
Also interesting about IBM's stunning results. It's an interesting contrast of corporate cultures between AAPL and IBM - IBM doesn't come to mind as in the same innovator class as Apple - but I guess IBM's emphasis into SW products and services are keeping them afloat these days with those better margins.
Mike
· 11 months ago
Unfortunately even with IBM's good news the other day, today we get word of layoffs happening.
International Business Machines Corp. employees have informed Alliance@IBM, an affiliate of the Communication Workers of America, that workers at a number of locations have been told their jobs are being eliminated.
Lee Conrad, national coordinator for Alliance, said that he has received a number of reports of people being informed that they are subject to what IBM calls a "resource action." He said that the reports are coming from people who work for the software group in applications development and marketing, among other functions.
MartinEdic
· 11 months ago
And now we have aapl beating the street estimates by 22% eps on GAAP numbers and by 50% on non-GAAP numbers. $28 billion in cash. What do they do with that?
we were doing so well here at AVC for a while, let's not let the obamaganda sway our good senses. lots of bad news still on the way. dollar devaluation baked in. geopolitical tension. markets still rife with corruption. people still think a guy in a cave pulled off 9/11.
sorry bulls, you had your fun with your inflationary asset bubbles created by your hero alan greenspan. but now the party's over, and us bears have come to make you pay the price. you can ask big govt to print more money and inflate your values, but be careful what you wish for.
All Comments
I'm sure that's not a popular notion in our newly soft victim-society....but it'll work for me!
I like the "Re-Valuation"
Term.
Thank you.
The bottom line to successful portfolio construction is to determine who is least negatively affected by this. Easier said than done.
On another note, ANimal COllective to be interviewed on NPR today
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?st...
Back to your post - last night AAPL also shattered analysts' estimates for sales and profit. There's not as much easy money lying around, but companies with innovative products will do just fine.
I'm turning into such an Apple fanboy now. I'd better keep cracking away on Objective-C/Cocoa. Are you still sticking with Android?
Also interesting about IBM's stunning results. It's an interesting contrast of corporate cultures between AAPL and IBM - IBM doesn't come to mind as in the same innovator class as Apple - but I guess IBM's emphasis into SW products and services are keeping them afloat these days with those better margins.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123257735535404...
Excerpt below, link requires WSJ Online membership.
IBM Employees Report Job Cuts
International Business Machines Corp. employees have informed Alliance@IBM, an affiliate of the Communication Workers of America, that workers at a number of locations have been told their jobs are being eliminated.
Lee Conrad, national coordinator for Alliance, said that he has received a number of reports of people being informed that they are subject to what IBM calls a "resource action." He said that the reports are coming from people who work for the software group in applications development and marketing, among other functions.
http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2009/01/search-f...
sorry bulls, you had your fun with your inflationary asset bubbles created by your hero alan greenspan. but now the party's over, and us bears have come to make you pay the price. you can ask big govt to print more money and inflate your values, but be careful what you wish for.
it's good to be a bear,
kid mercury