A VC - Latest Comments in Not All Earnings News Is Bad

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

fredwilson — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 20:02:24 -0000

Yes, I posted a bit about that today

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

colin ude-lewis — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 17:09:03 -0000

Nice news coming out at Google - http://investor.google.com/...

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

MartinEdic — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 14:05:35 -0000

And now we have aapl beating the street estimates by 22% eps on GAAP numbers and by 50% on non-GAAP numbers. $28 billion in cash. What do they do with that?

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

Mike — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 12:26:39 -0000

Unfortunately even with IBM's good news the other day, today we get word of layoffs happening.

http://online.wsj.com/artic...
Excerpt below, link requires WSJ Online membership.

IBM Employees Report Job Cuts

International Business Machines Corp. employees have informed Alliance@IBM, an affiliate of the Communication Workers of America, that workers at a number of locations have been told their jobs are being eliminated.

Lee Conrad, national coordinator for Alliance, said that he has received a number of reports of people being informed that they are subject to what IBM calls a "resource action." He said that the reports are coming from people who work for the software group in applications development and marketing, among other functions.

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

Chris Dodge — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 11:09:01 -0000

Now that they both have announced quarterly results, what a difference between Apple and Microsoft! This could be the beginning of Apple's "hockey stick" moment in terms of market share of iPhone and Macs? I hope they can sustain it. I bet AAPL will eventually make a very strong push into the Corporate/Enterprise market within the next few years - that will be their next growth market. Until Windows 7 comes out - which is getting strong reviews so far - Apple has an opportunity to keep gaining market share.

I'm turning into such an Apple fanboy now. I'd better keep cracking away on Objective-C/Cocoa. Are you still sticking with Android?

Also interesting about IBM's stunning results. It's an interesting contrast of corporate cultures between AAPL and IBM - IBM doesn't come to mind as in the same innovator class as Apple - but I guess IBM's emphasis into SW products and services are keeping them afloat these days with those better margins.

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

fredwilson — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 10:40:27 -0000

I need user based editing badly!!

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

Possible Jackass? — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 10:15:08 -0000

Fred, I love reading your blog! But listen, you're killing me slowly with the it's/its thing the last few posts. How I remember it: first choose between "its" and "it is". Only one will make sense in your sentence. Then shorten "it is" into "it's" if you feel like some apostrophe action.

Back to your post - last night AAPL also shattered analysts' estimates for sales and profit. There's not as much easy money lying around, but companies with innovative products will do just fine.

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

Lala Ram Lal — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 08:44:02 -0000

I think we must stop worrying too much about macro and take a deep look at micro-economics behind the business under consideration. More often than not - If micro economics is strong, macro would not make too much of a difference if the company is small and focused on what it does.

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

jarid — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 21:18:23 -0000

Twitter spikes and Google searches declined:
http://googleblog.blogspot....

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

awatterson — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 12:42:24 -0000

Hah. Right on, Economists are too dismal. Best leave those questions to the Philosophers.

I like the "Re-Valuation"
Term.

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

fredwilson — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 12:24:44 -0000

this blog will be neither bull nor bear i hope

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

gregorylent — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 11:13:03 -0000

agree with your terms .... and, as macro-wide as we can take our vision, re-valuation is the best name to describe the next few years ... all the way to "what does it mean to be a human being" .. not exactly a subject for economists ..

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

kidmercury — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 11:10:24 -0000

we were doing so well here at AVC for a while, let's not let the obamaganda sway our good senses. lots of bad news still on the way. dollar devaluation baked in. geopolitical tension. markets still rife with corruption. people still think a guy in a cave pulled off 9/11.

sorry bulls, you had your fun with your inflationary asset bubbles created by your hero alan greenspan. but now the party's over, and us bears have come to make you pay the price. you can ask big govt to print more money and inflate your values, but be careful what you wish for.

it's good to be a bear,
kid mercury

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

gruvr music map — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 11:09:26 -0000

someone should construct a market index that calculates ratio of positive to negative posts or tweets regarding the economy... I remember a distinct turning point where you started to hear negative blips amidst wholly optimistic news, over a year ago... early warning signs.

On another note, ANimal COllective to be interviewed on NPR today
http://www.npr.org/template...

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

awatterson — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 10:40:14 -0000

A recession can be real if it's a retreat from false value and asset bubbles. The recession you describe only occurs when assets are being undervalued, a hard argument to make given the fundamentals that led to this downturn.

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

Michael J. Pratt — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 10:27:16 -0000

1. Andy is right BUT, keep in mind that many negative effects take multiple quarters to manifest themselves in business downstream when an economy has structural issues to the extent that we do now. I am not a doomsday scenario guy but the over extension of credit to all parts of the economy phase of our lives is over, in many places for good, and that is a good thing. The problem is that many industries were able to experience abnormal double digit growth year after year because of the demand created by the leverage. That's gone now and it will take quite a bit of time to adjust all the businesses to that reality.

The bottom line to successful portfolio construction is to determine who is least negatively affected by this. Easier said than done.

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

Zach Heller — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 10:26:58 -0000

It is always good to point out the companies that seem to stand out in a bad climate. Negativity has spread far and wide, but it does not have to be the only news of the day.

Thank you.

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

gregorylent — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 10:25:07 -0000

what else is a recession but a mental event wherein almost everybody is saying things are bad? amusing world we create for ourselves ..

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

Jonathan W Smith — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 10:24:55 -0000

How does this relate to the Twitter spike yesterday as the 44 was sworn in? What do ants know about building a nest?

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

andyswan — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 10:24:08 -0000

Exactly. The best remedy for a recession is to refuse to participate.

I'm sure that's not a popular notion in our newly soft victim-society....but it'll work for me!

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

andyswan — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 10:22:02 -0000

In the darkest skies, the STARS shine brightest!

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

fredwilson — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 09:42:55 -0000

I am a non participant too guys! Maybe I need to change the name of this blog. We can call it nonparticipants.com ;)

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

fredwilson — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 09:42:51 -0000

Not sure. What do you think?

Re: Not All Earnings News Is Bad

fredwilson — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 09:42:45 -0000

Yup. And trade at 10-16x net income