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Measure EVERYTHING, and keep graphing higher derivatives until you get a flat line. You may find interesting patterns. As a simple, non-commercially sensitive example, at clevr.com we've found that our new user signups show a constant month-on-month percentage increase. Use Google Analytics etc, but your own database should be your most useful source of information. Don't forget that you can use the Google __utmz cookie yourself: it has useful information in it.
guess now we're on the hook for NYC in 2009 eh?
I'll make sure Debbie Landa at DealMaker -- my partner in crime producing Startonomics -- knows we gotta bring the noise from the left coast next year.
in the meantime we'll be streaming the event online and tweeting updates real-time @ http://Twitter.com/STNX starting thursday.
If you can not measure it, you can not manage it. Applied to user acquisition and profitability
LONGER VERSION
In the feedly case, AARRR looks like this: visit feedly.com -> install feedly -> keep feedly installed -> uses feedly once a week -> uses feedly daily -> tweet or write a post about feedly -> more people visit feedly.com. We have also defined infrastructure cost = f(users) and ad revenue = f( users).
Thanks to this model we are laser focused on streamlining each step and increasing users to the point where ad revenue > infrastructure cost + salaries. This also enables us to determine for each feature we push out if it has a positive impact and we should invest in it or if it a bad idea and we should learn and move on.
I would've said, measure and listen to everything that your customers say AND DO. Too many teams just listen to each other, or a few paying customers at best. Startonomics seems to really be about matching your aspirations with customers' behavior.