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Any country or culture that stops getting strong influences from the outside will start going stale.
There is still plenty of room and unbuilt land in America, as long as security concerns could be met and immigrants would stand on their own two feet, I see no reasons why borders could not be more or less "open for anyone".
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123561551065378...
"A tax policy that confiscated 100% of the taxable income of everyone in America earning over $500,000 in 2006 would only have given Congress an extra $1.3 trillion in revenue. That's less than half the 2006 federal budget of $2.7 trillion and looks tiny compared to the more than $4 trillion Congress will spend in fiscal 2010. Even taking every taxable "dime" of everyone earning more than $75,000 in 2006 would have barely yielded enough to cover that $4 trillion."
In other words, raising taxes, leaving Iraq, and cutting a program or two will still come nowhere near balancing a budget. Cap and trade would also act as an increase in taxes. The ridiculous fuel standards would not help people save more money. The cars will cost more than normal and any benefit in gasoline savings will surely be made up by the equally ridiculous mileage tax some states are considering where gps devices are placed on vehicles. This spending is the best example of government irresponsibility. Obama's only hope is to create a nation of people dependent on the government. That is not the America I want and it certainly is diametrically opposed to the principals this country was founded on, primarily freedom and liberty.
This is NOT the worst economy since the Great Depression, that is a lie. It is the worst economy since Jimmy Carter!
Do I believe we all will face unintended consequences? Yes, we will.
Hell, I thought they meant he was going to announce massive tax cuts, ban abortion and close down a couple of government departments. LOL
We have got to stop this silly blame game of trying to look "not so dumb" cause the other guy is "so dumb". It's trivial and nonsensical. Candidate Obama ran against President Bush --- great strategy! But now it's time to govern, so let's cut the crap and get on with it.
It is fair to disagree about policy but the namecalling is just silly. President Bush did a great job keeping us safe and I cannot imagine what he and the Republican Congress were thinking as it relates to spending. It is incomprehensible.
But now is it "Obama's time" --- "Now, it's our time!" OK, we've started the meter running --- govern already! But for goodness sake, stop campaigning.
Let's stop all the backward looking and focus on the future. Cut the crap!
Oh, my, yes I forgot about Lilly Ledbetter and SCHIP and those wonderful Executive Orders as I was so focused on the....................................................................................................................................................................................................................freakin' WORLD FINANCIAL MELTDOWN!
One must remember to dust when rearranging the entire financial world, mustn't one? LOL
Just for the record, "legislating" is not the same thing as "governing".
I wish he had not abdicated the writing of the Porkulus bill to Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid, for another thing.
I wish he had called in the Republicans and the Democrats (House and Senate, mind you) and sat them down and said: "Hey, I want to create (not this baloney of 'save' --- create) 4 million jobs."
"Go back to your offices and prepare a list of those initiatives which will create the most jobs per $1MM invested --- no dollar amounts just per $1MM invested. Send your lists over to the CBO and have them grade them. The CBO will verify your assumptons and return to you a prioritized list in descending order."
Then he would have had the Democrats go first and pick 2 from their list --- from the top down. Then the Republiccans go second and pick 2 from their list --- from the top down. Then the President go third and pick 2 from either list.
When the lists had been completed, then he would have had them haggle out the numbers. When each subset of the list totalled $250B, he would have sent them over to the Congress for immediate action.
He would have totalled up the number of jobs to be created and everybody would have committed to that number.
That would have been leadership and that would have forced the Republicans and Democrats to work together. Everybody's fingerprints on the murder weapon. Burn the boats, nobody is going back that way!
A leader takes groups of folks to places they could never reach by themselves --- he doesn't stand and watch as the parade marches by.
The funny thing about it, I think Pres Obama has that kind of moxie. I think the man can do it. But he can't do it, if he has to REACT to Speaker Pelosi and Sen Reid.
It is not an accomplishment to get a bunch of drunken Democrats and three swishy Republicans to throw a $1T party for all their buddies.
The Ears of Pork $400B bill they passed today --- the 1000 points of pork --- is another example of the need for leadership. If he has moxie, he vetoes it.
That's what I consider governing.
Engage damn it, Obama!
BTW, it's worth noting that the American populace disagree with you on almost every point (see recent polling data from outfits too numerous to mention). They see Obama attempting to reach across the aisle, while Republicans are being obstinate. Guess that's all smoke and mirrors. We'll see in 2010 and 2012.
It will take a bit more than serving up cookies at a Super Bowl party to make that happen.
He should have snatched the Porkulus legislation out of the House and written it in the White House.
Pelosi --- suspend the rules, no committee meetings,no debate, no direct consultation with the Republicans, no Republicans on the mark up committee, a 1200 p bill at 9:00 PM and vote at 9:00 AM. Can you read that fast? Not getting a single Republican vote. <<<<<< all of this is Nancy Pelosi's doing and Pres Obama should have b!tch smacked her down the hall. At what point does one start governing America and stop being a hack Democrat?
The right answer: NOW!
criticized for it. But I still feel that way.
I think I mentioned this before in your guest post but in merits repeating what you sd b4 (and I'm inserting the obvious name) -
"Engage damn it, Obama!"
and I'll also leave this from Jester of Top Gun fame:
“The clock is ticking and as of now we are keeping score.”
Here's the accompanying sound clip - http://snipr.com/cn8j2
I think we may also lead in TFP.
Just look at the photo accompanying that article -- those people are working in a state-of-the-art auto factory. They just stand there and the work comes to them.
That's an advantage that will erode with every passing year.
Peter Steinberg
http://www.FlashlightWorthyBooks.com
Who cares how productive, or state-of-the-art your facility is if you're making a product that doesn't sell.
I think your broader point is maybe that we may not be as "hungry" as other up and comers. China and India are allocating resources to produce a scientifically and technologically literate workforce the like of which the world has never seen. Their priorities are much more aligned with becoming top economies than ours are in maintaining our position.
Part of that stems from the fact that we have labor laws and wage requirements, and a much higher life expectancy thanks to such regulations, along with food protection laws.
The final point I want to make about immigration is the point that AVC doesn't make: The reason we have so many immigrants is because they want to come here because of the comparative freedoms (freedom to worship, to speak, to pursue dreams) that aren't available in many of the countries they come from.
And, fwiw, not *everyone* can be an engineer or scientist - even in China or India, or the U.S. for that matter.
It's a great point
I heard him make nearly a dozen grand statements... fix the healthcare system, fix Medicaid, slash the deficit, upgrade the military, end the war in Iraq, save the banks, save the homeowners... any one of which would grind any other administration to a halt. I'm surprised he didn't mention cold fusion.
I've got all my fingers and toes crossed but he's bringing out my pessimism.
Peter Steinberg
http://www.FlashlightWorthyBooks.com
Recommending books so good, they'll keep you up past your bedtime.
That's a good one. My wife read this post and said it came off negative. I told her that means I am negative
Obama is brilliant. He chooses every action with the end result in mind, getting stuff done. This speech got people on his side in terms of the economy, and it's going to be very difficult to oppose him and get any support. That he didn't detail the "practical realities" doesn't mean he's not thinking about them. Practical realities don't inspire people to go shopping or contact their representative or be productive. He gets that.
Also, I like grand statements. This country is built on grand statements. We've been low-balling it for a long time. What is that quote...? “Shoot for the moon and if you miss you will still be among the stars.”
Small business is where big businesses come from and where they will continue to come from. Years ago I was a YPO member in a chapter which counted among its membership Michael Dell when he was a fledgling entrepreneur. He had just started distributing his product on the internet --- up until then it had been distributed through catalogs (does anybody remember catalogs?).
He said this internet stuff is a "promising" distribution channel. He was a few months removed from distributing from his car trunk. [He was the quintessential geek in well rumpled khakis and Mexican food stained blue button downs but then he met a "girl" and the rest is history. Best makeover in the history of American business, no?]
Small business is the largest employer in America and we all better hope that it rises to the ocassion as it will be quite a while before Citi is able to get back into the plus column with 52,000 bodies piled up.
Great small businesses are run by folks who learned their craft working for the biggest companies in their industry and stepped down the curve to the smallest business and there installed and refined the big company practices.
I think America has a bit of a blind spot as it relates to small business. Note that small business is not represented on any boards or commisions that the Administration has formed to deal with the economy and that damn little of the money will ultimately find its way into this arena --- meanwhile the auto makers will be making tea over piles of burning $100 bills while calling for more fuel.
Having worked for a Fortune 10 company and having founded, run and owned small businesses (some of which grew up to be fair sized enterprises) for a big chunk of a century, I have long ago gone "all in" on small business --- why? Cause I have made a whole lot more money in small businesses and I am the captain of my own destiny. I get paid in "cheddar" and get to be the "big cheese". My own private little psychosis.
“I can no longer obey; I have tasted command, and I cannot give it up.”
Napoleon Bonaparte
Napoleon understood small business.
Think Gates, Jobs, Brin/Page, Kalin, Karp, etc, etc
Interesting stuff to think about
http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/16/small-business... and Tim Connors posted this link below but for any one not reading the comments till the bottom, this article is a good read. :)
a lot of politicians give lip service to small business because no one campaigns on how much they do to help big business. but large businesses are uniquely well positioned for lobbying and rent-seeking.
I agree that the auto industry is his 'Vietnam'. Instead of letting them die a slow agonizing death he should refuse them anything and put them out of their misery.
He has a lot of cool sounding rhetoric but I am impressed with all the small but important changes he's making. All the politicians that follow are going to have to be at least as open as his administration has been so far. And that's a good thing.
Oh, and: Poor Bobby Jindal.
2) If we are not prepared to open up our borders more broadly to the best and brightest and toughest in this world, all the rest is just words Definitiely. It's not time for a not-invented-here mentality. We need the grit and determination and the self=selection of the first generation immigrant to replenish our population.
3) His econmic plan has three initiatives... that's enough. How many initiatives can you control at one time? All the rest will come from them.
4) Hardest working people on earth? Not really, because we are not educated for the jobs coming up in this entury.
5) "He's also got three domestic priorities; energy, health care, and education. He's right that our economy is highly impacted by them. I'm limpressed that he's picked some stuff to focus on and I think these a three great areas to focus on for long term sustainability". I have nothing to add to this. He picked mine, for sure.
6) "95 pcnt of the jobs created with stimulus will be private sector jobs. That's a great factoid. Let's put a big pie chart on the front page of recovery.gov and chart that in real time please." We need to consider jobs differently. A job is now a gig, a project, a company that might fail. It's not a lifetime entitlement. Even government jobs, if not made permanent, will give people experience to do things in the private sector.
7) "A new accountability for money spent saving banks. Barack said "I intend to hold these banks fully accountable for the assitance they receive". Good luck with that. Money is fungible. It doesn't have rfid tags on it. Trust me on this one. I know a bit about handing over money to companies. There's only one way to know it will be spent well and that is smart, honest, and capable management. An army of accountants is going to get unleashed on the banking sector and god help them and us" I see a new SARBOX coming here if the regulations become permanent, or apply to all banks. And yes, it will certainly be the full employment act for accountants..
8) "its not about helping banks - its about helping people" And yes, we should all root for him. He has to deal with Congress, and they suck.
9) Energy - the best part of his speech was the bit about energy. He gets it. But the auto sector has the potential to be the "vietnam" of his energy plan. Act swiftly and courageously there Mr President or it could be a noose around your neck. Just look at GM. In two short months they are back on your doorstep with their hands out. When a portfolio company acts like that in our business, they are dead on arrival.
10) Education - I left education thirty years ago because of the bureaucracy. Like health care, it has to be blown up to be helped. Incredemtnalism won't do it.
11) Fiscal discipline. Trust me, fiscal discipline is possible. You put one foot in front of the other. It's like paying down credit card debt. What you can't do is try anything fancy, like loan consolidation or credit consultants.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/...
Overall, I liked most of what he had to say -- it sounded very positive, etc.
I think we've all seen that he's a great speaker. But, let's remember he's a politician: words + actions are two entirely separate things.
he talked about the importance of restoring the credit markets and getting the banks lending again. nope, wrong again. a real economy is built on savings, a ponzi economy is built on the illusion of credit.
inflation i mean stimulus packages sound great as they allow for deceptive talk about job creation. of course opportunity cost is the real issue. who's better at investing resources, govt or professional investors and entrepreneurs? who understands that real gains in wealth and productivity comes from disruptive innovations, and who's trained at finding and developing disruptive innovations -- entrepreneurs and investors or govt? before answering, check what blog you're on :)
but hey, at least he's committed to protecting us from cave dwellers in the war on terror. and that's important, right? RIGHT?
lol. right.
http://obamadeception.net/articles.html
So big deficits would be a way to drive the printing presses, wouldn't they?
In addition, we became the arsenal of democracy which pushed manufacturing productivity to the highest level in our history while dramatically shortening development time.
Did you know that by the end of the war, we were making 50,000 planes a month? Wow!
All non-productive spending was curtailed; and, the war effort absorbed all natural resources. Remember, we had rationing of gasoline, tires and sugar!
Though we had meaningful deficits, they were not based upon profligate domestic spending and thus when the war ended, it was possible to check spending easily.
regarding WWII, the feds did try to inflate their way out of that mess as well by repricing gold from $20/oz to $35/oz, and by confiscating gold from citizens. ultimately though the dollar was still pegged to gold so there were limits as to how much they could inflate, and so the deflation spiral took hold anyway. IMO if govt hadnt intervened it would have been easier for entrepreneurs and the free market to solve things, instead govt intervention distorted investor and entrepreneur analysis while also competing with the free market for labor resources, thus making entrepreneurial efforts even harder and thus turning what would have been a steep but short recession into a decade long crisis. so i dont think money printing really helped during the great depression either. of course there are different schools of thought on that, but that is the conventional anti-federal reserve/free market argument.
It fit her well.
You want to know the most frequent commenters on the blog or the specific comment thread?
I have read this comment four times today and every time I burst into laughter. This is some very naturally and genuinely funny stuff. Hahahahaha.
For some reason, it just tickles my funny bone.
I thought we had agreed to outlaw torture?
My worst nightmare of torture would be Al Gore explaining global warming --- slowly --- and Nancy Pelosi defending the Porkulus --- quickly. I would crack in about 4 minutes.
The dress goes to judgment. Some folks got it and some folks...............
much fun watching all you regulars get along so well
"And I believe the nation that invented the automobile cannot walk away from it." - Karl Benz invented the automobile, Ford later developed mass production.
Obama is a great speaker, but I still hear too much spin and interpretations of circumstances that have little resemblance to reality but advance the agenda at hand. I hope that this changes. Ross Perot was kind of nutty (like the crazy aunt in the attic as a matter of fact), but I still long for the kind of clarity of language in politics that he employed in his campaigns.
1. USA emerging stronger -- There is idealism in this statement and I think that's healthy. It is one use of the bully pulpit. I read Zakaria on your recommendation and while I think there are many salient points our experiment in democracy remains the purest. One need not look further than the fact that we elected a black president. When will this happen in the UK, France, even Brazil? Any shot that Japan will elect somebody of Korean descent?
2. This pure democracy is driven by our long history of welcoming immigrants into this country. Over the past 50 years we have gotten away from this critical value and you are absolutely right for raising it is a key issue. Our community can play a constructive role bringing this issue to the table. We should try to become a country of 400mm people over the next 40 years. And immigration should help. We have room.
3. TARP 1 was mismanaged. TARP 2 doesn't look so promising. Obama must get this right or none of the other stuff matters. But give him credit for continuing to find money for our broken credit system at a time where Wall Street could not be less popular politically. I follow http://www.informationarbitrage.com completely on this stuff and think the performance has been subpar to date, but I'm trying to keep the faith.
4. Hardest working people on Earth? Well, I saw this as a call to arms. Again inspiration matters here. He was talking to the people in the room about picking up their game as much as he was to you and I.
5. I was impressed that he wants to tackle Healthcare, Education, and Energy simultaneously. I fear it's a mistake and that it would be very difficult to make measurable progress on all three issues within 4 years.
6. Of course the job claim was aggressive, but the fact that recovery.org even exists is such a departure from beltway culture I still don't really believe it can work.
9. The automotive industry as a vietnam is a very rich metaphor. I hope it spreads. I want to blog about it.
10. Charter schools got a mention last night. They are part of entrepreneurial education. But you are right. How about a $1bn for education entrepreneurs?
11. Fiscal discipline, physical discipline, parental discipline, discipline, discipline, discipline. The country has lacked it. The Obamas (Michelle included) have it. They are trying to impart it. The job may be impossible, but we need to do our part to continue to push the administration while bringing a little of that magjcal entreprenuerial faith and optimism that makes the AVC community, the Internet community, and the greater technology community engines of hope.
He has one more chance to stabilize the market, and this will occur when Geithner comes out with his specific plan on banks. If he whiffs we are all going to feel the impact.
As for Americans being the hardest working, I shudder to hear Obama say that.
Histroy has shown us the fall of some amazing empires - like the British and Roman empires (All roads led to Rome or the sun never set on the British Empire) and it seems we are just repeating history with the United States. I don't want to be the next UK.
That's really all you need to know about why Federal Government should NOT be as powerful as it is....as the framers attempted to tell us via the 10th amendment in the bill of rights.
often overlooked is that the federal govt is an agreement amongst the states. while this concept has been slowly been annihilated since lincoln got the ball rolling, some states are thankfully stepping up to the plate and putting the smackdown on the feds.
Someone needs to tell Obama the campaign is over. I understand this will be difficult, seeing as he has done little else in his adult life....but at this point, it's time to throw down.
I'm with him on the "goals", just think his approach is clumsy, heavy-handed and naive. Good luck Mr. President.
Personally I don't know if this 'crisis' is solvable by government but I do know that it's important for the people to believe it is to avoid societal collapse.
*And LOL at the Pelosi comment. I'll never be able to look at her the same again.
a deer-in-the-headlights country, how it looks from here in beijing
One of the many great things about the web is we can learn and listen to how others view us
Thanks for sharing that perspective
Just because our leadership went from dumbass with a swagger [preferred] to reactionary deer-in-headlights, while our media outlets go chicken-little, doesn't mean Americans aren't preparing for another great leg up in the background. We think we're great because we are great, and vice-versa.
http://babblingvc.typepad.com/pjozefak/2009/02/...
I love points 1., 2. and 4. particularly!
Paul
If you work in tech, those points are painfully obvious to us
It really bothers me that Obama left out all mention of our history as the greatest melting pot on earth
It's about the best and brightest, plain and simple
We don't have a monopoly on them and less and less are coming here and/or staying here
And that is a big problem
I am a new yorker who lived in Europe and Asia for six years. During that time I reflected on why my city and my country were more competitive than the rest. In the end, I decided it was the constant influx of new people from all over the world. Immigrants are HUNGRIER than most - it takes a lot of desire to uproot yourself from your comfort zone and move to another place in search of a better life. The best and brightest from around the world are attracted to the opportunities created when they are around other smart, ambitious people, and so they collect in London, NYC, Silicon Valley, etc. However, equally important is inexpensive manual labor who will work hard on back-breaking, thankless jobs.
I think the dumbest thing we did post-9/11 was impose visa restrictions and curb immigration. Now the smart people are collecting in Budapest, Bangalore, Singapore and others rather than coming to the US, and our labor costs go up (and often productivity goes down) because we don't have inexpensive labor for menial jobs we are 'above.'
I don't think we are any safer as a result. In fact, if this continues we will face long-term marginalization as the best, brightest, and hardest workers go elsewhere.
I think Fred's #4 is solved by #2 - open the borders again and lets return to what made us great. Otherwise we will be like France without the great cheese.
Sadly, that has changed after 8 years of conservative and under-performing Bush administration. Both the cap on work visa and this current economic crisis are factors that have turned talents away. Even as far as 3 years ago, in my NYU Stern MBA of 06 class, we already had more than 70% of Asian MBAs that decided to return to Asia. I don't know where your 80% capabilities comparison came from but these certainly are top management candidates. (NYU Stern is a top 10 MBA program.)
The even more stupid thing is now they're gonna ban banks that have received TARP money from renewing H1B (work visa) for their foreign employees. Think about it. These are top talents that have gone through on-the-job training for 3 years that we're talking about. I don't think it's doing this country/economy any good when you just let them go back to work for international banks that are essentially Wall St's competition.
I think to help resolve the current economic crisis, instead of turning away would-be immigrants, America should open its arms fully to new immigrants. Do you guys know that you have to commit to invest at least $1M to obtain an investor class green card? Even if you have the money, the wait currently is 10 years. So instead of asking tax payers for bail out money, why don't we just issue 1M green cards to these wealthy individuals and there is your $1 trillion to rescue the economy. Not to mention all the additional service sector jobs these wealthy new immigrants would create.
UAW: "WE put you in office, Mr President."
Pres: "You are going to cost me my freakin' job, fellas. And I like THIS job."
UAW: "WE can put someone else into your job."
Pres: "Not if I put the American automakers out of business and you don't have any union dues to collect."
UAW: "You don't have the damn balls to do that, Mr. President."
Pres: "Hey, boys, I'm from Chicago and I'm capable of anything. Go ask my buddy, Reverend Wright."
Typical Mexican standoff. Big hint: What have you heard lately about "card check"? Hmmmm, President did not mention it last night, did he?
I think ultimately bankruptcy court was invented for businesses to reorganize IF THEY CAN. I think the ship has sailed on GM, et al. It's pretty damn telling when 90% of the folks on the big "car committee" drive foreign cars.
Good luck, GM! Ooops, gotta run, taking my Hudson in for service today!
A portfolio company dying means the loss of a few to a few dozen jobs probably. That's vastly different than losing perhaps 1m jobs in the current climate. Even if it's the right thing to do (and I think it is), there's a timing issue and an issue of HOW it fails.
I question whether the Big 3 -- too big to be nimble and adaptable -- is what the auto industry needs in the 21st century.
Perhaps those 1M+ jobs can be saved by keeping the existing fleet of cars running and retooling the way cars are manufactured. Not to mention retraining auto workers for alternative energy development.
Some of those 1m can work in alternative energy development, but it's utopian to say that many of them will. Others will find work in a redone auto industry. However they're not numbers, they ARE people... and losing that many jobs will reverberate in a big way.
There's nothing wrong with the Big 3 as a model if what we need is mass production... up to now their error has been designing and building cars that people don't want, not the mass production of cars. An interesting question is whether we still need mass production in order to create affordable personal transportation.
GM is, I think, done for. But we need to see its demise/transition managed so that it hurts the economy the least. The emotional reaction is to say "Screw them, pull the plug now!" but we need to put more thought into it than that. Ideally, a restructuring that preserves the value so that when the economy turns around the new entities thrive vs merely survive.
One point I was surprised about - how can we punish companies that hire global talent ("keep jobs in the U.S.") and at the same time warn of the dangers of protectionism? Seems contradictory to me.
I can't wait for some meaningful stats to be posted on recovery.gov!
As in "we'd all better hang together because if we don’t we'll all hang separately"
Thoughtful as always. While I too am impressed by his willingness to get out in front of the situation and try things, the devil is truly in the details. When I see the breakdown of $850 billion to its component parts, I no longer see a President who is trying to attack specific initiatives or try new things. The times we're in require REAL divergence from the norm, and unfortunately the expediency with which we all want to see action is working directly against the funds and energies being used in a creative manner.
Being a first generation immigrant myself, I know what its like to stay in the office long after people are gone just because you feel the need to prove yourself on a continual basis and you're the benefactor of a visa that is controversial at worst and unappreciated at best.
Agree with all your other points but these especially stood out for me.
This isn't the first time the US has questioned if our best days are behind us. Lots of people have been wrong before making similar predictions as Zakaria. The key point is, if Obama sets his sights lower, like you want, he guarantees that is what we will settle for. There is power in Big Hairy Audacious Goals that allow you to reach levels you would not with lesser compromise goals. I am not ready to throw in the towel.
He had to say that
But I'm not changing it
I wrote it so it stays, but if I were to write it again, I think I'd say it differently
Can the world see us again as America the Innovative or America the Facilitator instead of America the Global Bully??
if we are going to go down this foolish path, at least let's try to be smart about it.
i like Andrew Field's ideas. http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/16/small-business...
Small business owners who have managed to generate consistent profits during reasonable economic times are careful capital allocators. Say we gave small businesses who were profitable for three years in a row before the downturn a loan of 10k per employee up to a max of 20% of the taxes they paid in the last three years. Make it interest-only which converts to principle plus interest twelve months after GDP starts growing again. Small business gets immediate help and it goes to those who have a good shot at paying it back...
If it allowed them to keep the 1 in 5 folks that they would layoff due to lack of credit, we'd create a job for every 50k invested. need 5M jobs, it costs you $250B, and you have a very good opportunity to get a good ROI....
Instead the government is giving it to banks and the auto industry. The banks who were careful capital allocators in the last decade didn't need tarp money and it isn't affecting their lending habits now. Giving it to the banks who aren't careful and to the auto companies with completely broken business models is a disaster.
GM is the Wang of the auto industry. Who would want to invest in that?
That is so getting reblogged on fredwilson.vc!!
We can't prop everyone up, some failure is unavoidable. We need to be strategic with those that we allow to fail as well as those that we prop up to ensure the ripples of those failures can be contained and the economy as a whole can become healthier.
You have to cull the herd to ensure the productive breeders live through the harsh winters
You can't cull the herd without a bit of blood on the grass.
It's time to cull the herd.
The herd will emerge stonger if we wield the knife now.
9) my family has always been a Ford family and it pains me to say this but Ford and GM need to be left alone to their own devices and if they die they die. Innovation and new companies will take their place and re-employ their workers. Other companies will buy up their brands and factories and take over their contracts. We need to pull the life support plug and deal with the consequences with innovation.
I only caught about 20 minutes of the speech while doing a cooldown at the gym. The part about getting everyone to graduate high school and then get some sort of higher education is a lofty goal.
We need fewer communications/journalism/basket weaving majors and more engineers/scientists/doctors. Hell, even reworking curriculums would help. Instead of forcing several arts, literature, & humanities classes on students to create "well rounded" educations, maybe replace a few with some engineering or computer science classes.
My girls were not interested in it, but my son is
So we have a young man who recently graduated from ITP come over one night a week
Josh is 13 and he's learning HTML, CSS, PHP, as well as photoshop and some flash
It's great. But if we didn't care enough to supplement his education, he'd go without all of this.
It's scary and eye opening at the same time
And this is a private school I'm talking about
I think we can only focus on growing the pie because if we focus on making sure our piece of the pie doesn’t shrink, the pie will shrink and we'll all go hungry
1. We are not a democracy. Yep that’s right we’re not a democracy. We are a republic. I strongly encourage everyone to watch this video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DioQooFIcgE
2. Healthcare – Want to solve our problems with healthcare? Massive tort reform across the board. Healthcare for every child, from womb to 18 yrs of age, and they must be a citizen of this country. A healthy start in life makes for a healthy person throughout life. It increases the quality of life and reduces the cost of life for everyone. Additionally let free market rule the system.
3. Education – Completely abolish the Department of Education. It’s been proven year after year how much of a failure it truly is. Let the states have THE say on education – Empowerment thru localization. Encourage private investment in education through attractive tax incentives. Have states strongly implement a voucher based system. We will quickly realize an immense improvement in quality of education and teachers if we just follow these steps.
4. Energy – Yes let’s go at it for developing alternative energy sources and let’s be realistic about it too. If Obama thinks he’s going to lay thousands of miles of power lines to retool the grid in the next year or two he’s dreaming and shows he has no idea of what’s involved in doing so. Let’s have a comprehensive energy plan – Let’s build more nuclear power plants which emit ZERO pollutants into the air. I know this is an over-used phrase but let’s drill here, drill now. It’s return is quick and we can have the 1st barrel of oil produced within 2 to 3 years. People have to wake up to the fact that petroleum based products are here to stay – look around the room that you are in right now – everything that you see that has plastic – that’s petroleum. Deal with it people. By drilling here and now – it has world wide economic effects and is nothing but good for America. As for alternative energy sources, let’s go for it through tax incentives to private companies, and funding of R&D by private companies.
5. Taxes and Federal Spending – across the board permanent tax cuts for business and personal. The strongest argument for this is the fact that when tax cuts have been implemented tax receipts have remained constant. - http://snipr.com/cmk71. As for federal spending – STOP IT! Freeze all new spending period. We don’t need what we don’t have the money for. Then go through the budget and reduce both mandatory and discretionary spending. Set the baseline so we have something to measure to rather than against. Then from that point on – pay as you go.
6. Government interference – Those people up on the Hill and in the Administration have no clue what to do. Sorry they’ve proven it over and over again. Let the free market work with SMART regulation. Auto companies – chapter 11. Banks – TEMPORARY nationalization. The banks don’t know what they’re doing, the gov’t bailing them out doesn’t know what they’re doing either. So nationalize them, implement mark to market and find out what they’re actually worth, set up a “back burner bank” for the toxic assets, and start up new banks with fresh clean capital. The assets in the back burner bank, like you’ve said, will get back to reasonable value. We can then walk that “new” good value bank into the new banks.
Finally to the President and Congress – I leave you inept, rhetorical, always in campaign mode people with a quote:
"I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong." Frederick Douglass
What we need is to find alternative solutions, and the best way to do that is to have economic incentives. Once consumers start paying more at the pump (or for their end products), companies will be incentivized to innovate and create higher MPG cars and more efficient processing of petroleum products.
Finally, your comment on plastics is a red herring - only 3 percent of crude oil is used in plastics. You would have been more accurate mentioning bitumen-based products (e.g., asphalt, lubricants, etc.) which use 26% of crude. However, that still leaves 71% for gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.
I should have been clearer in my drill here, drill now proposition - I'm including petroleum and natural gas. I'm also factoring in the psychological, social, and economic factors as a whole too.
If u take a look at the GOM - there's tremendous oil and natural gas reserves there. I think Chevron found a 15 billion barrel field there a couple of years ago. Let's take a look at the California coast as well.
I'm going to go out on sort of a limb here and suggest something that does have scientific merit - what if oil is a naturally ongoing produced product from the earth? It's still theoretical that it is a fossil fuel. I think deep drilling and additional R&D is needed in order to understand this. I know - a lot of people and companies are invested that oil is a fossil fuel but it merits further actual proof that it is.
Let's also take a close look at the right alternative solutions - the amount of land for windfarms in order to produce a good output is exponential compared to nuclear power plants. That's not even factoring in the thousands of miles of lines needed for distribution as well.
Yes smart investment in alternative solutions is necessary. R&D through good tax incentives is a preferrable route that I'm willing to take as well.
As for my plastics as a red herring. Good point on the 3%. However if you do include bitumen based then ur looking at 29% total as you pointed out. That's a big percentage. Gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel at 71% would be greatly affected by a drill here program as part of a comprehensive energy plan. Our foreign dependence would go down dramatically.
So let's develop a comprehensive energy plan that includes nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, oil, etc. Let's work on a total solution for both near and long term goals.
Thanks a lot for your comments Paul. I love learning what I don't know from people who know what I don't. ;-)
I want to pay $1/gallon at the pump in taxes
I am a bit mystified on the issue of nuclear power. I understand that there is an element of America which is opposed for light and intransigent reasons but the numbers work like a charm and it would create a HUGE number of jobs. Great jobs.
On the other hand, even if we solved all the problems involved with distribution of "fill in the blank" alternative energy source, the numbers simply don't work. I have been studying solar --- both commercial and residential --- and a $25K residential installation (I run out of roof at this level) with a $13K local rebate and a 30% tax credit (on the whole amount under the Porkulus) still leaves one with a 7% ROI and that's only if the sun shines.
Nuke me up, Scottie!
I have been supplying my employees (actually they have been supplying themselves) with health care insurance for 25 years with no incentive other than "good bidness". This problem can be solved fairly easily.
I worked for Mobil in the 1970s and there are platforms off California in the Santa Barbara area with 60 slots for directional drilling and only 20 wells completed. Everything is piped and producing. This oil could be flowing in less than 12 months.
fun working on my start-up.
If I did run people would have to get used to me calling BS on their reps &
senators from both sides of the aisle; their heads exploding from talking to
them like the adults that they are and not children; and to actually and
truly bring both sides together to do the work of the people and not the
work of self-interest. So I better stick to what I'm doing for now.
Ugggh!!! Examples like yours just make me crazy. Good solid answers are
out there with regular Americans and not Beltwayans!
What a concept for incentives - "Good Bidness" - naww can't be, why that
would be too easy. ;-)
Other than that, it's a pretty good solution
Unless obama can deliver us cold fusion
Let's rent West Texas. Build the biggest damn reinforced concrete containment vessel ever conceived and store the stuff forever. Hell, today, about 20 counties would rename themselves - Noooculear Waste --- just for the jobs.
I'd be more supportive of nuclear energy if the industry didn't always loan guarantees, liability caps, etc.
http://webseitz.fluxent.com/wiki/z2007-08-01-Nu...
Waste may be like coal tar: something that provides value in the future....
http://webseitz.fluxent.com/wiki/z2006-01-19-Br...
http://bit.ly/U0Eo
Not sure if its back yet
Re Pelosi jumping out of her seat every two seconds...couldn't agree more. Skeletor needs to stay seated.
I think for many people, that's the missing component in all this. Not sure if he's done that yet to the best of his ability.
Otherwise, I thought the speech was positive, something we all need right now. Seems he and Bernake might have got together to discuss their speech tonality.
In my world, immigrants are smart,educated, hungry, work harder, complain less, and just get stuff done
I love them
Mexican immigrants bring a penchant for hard work, strong families, Catholic moral values, entrepreneurial zeal, great ambition for the next generation, laughter, love and chiles rellenos. This is a very stong package.
Anyway, I think the issue is not immigration, but illegal immigration. Many capable, smart, entrepreneurial, industrious immigration applicants are probably seeing their visas being rejected as a result of the illegal immigration overload.
My family immigrated to the U.S. in 1988. My parents came here for the same reason all immigrants do - OPPORTUNITY. The expectation was if we work our butts off, we can increase our standard of living. This was clear to me and my brothers on day 1 here (I was in jr high at the time).
I don't know a single immigrant who come here because of government handouts. Frankly, most of the people looking for that end up staying in their home country as its too difficult and risky to uproot their family, connections and trek over here for the free 'handouts'.
I've talked to a number of investors about education, and while they are all interested in investing in education, none of them are willing to consider an investment in a company that sell tools/services to schools (public or private). Why? the sales cycles are insanely long... multiple months just to get a demo... no one knows who has the authority to say "yes" to anything. But, for better or for worse, school is where our kids our learning today, and though homeschooling is increasing in popularity, I don't see it taking any significant market share in the near future.
So, yes, Barack is missing an opportunity here, but calling on the private sector to invest in education alone is not enough. In it's current form, private sector investment in education will generate more Kaplans and University of Phoenixs, which I would find very disappointing on an ethical level. We need to find a way to open up schools to private vendors better... we need to encourage experimentation in cirriculums, and this experimentation needs financial motivation.
President Obama is getting ready to have his first "real" test of whether his intellectual flights of fancy will survive the collision with the harsh reality of modern politics --- the Speaker's newly proposed $400B + "clean up" bill or as I like to call it: "The Ears of Pork Bill."
If he somehow tempers this "1,000 points of pork" bill by negotiation, or better still by vetoing it --- then he will be the "decider". If not, then he is likely to be exposed as just another smooth talking (very, very, very smooth talking) hack. He truly controls his own destiny and unfortunately ours to boot!
Two other quick points:
Yes, the budget can be balanced. Eisenhower balanced 8 budgets in a row while building the Nation's nuclear arsenal. He cut defense spending relying on the defense philosophy of "deterence" rather than "overwhelming force". There is no person in the world more supportive of our defense than me (former professional soldier, VMI grad, 400 years of soldiers in my family) but we can eliminate, curtail, delay, reduce and extend a number of advanced weapon spending programs. Many of these weapon systems are designed to defeat an enemy capability which does not currently exist. We can re-start them in 6 years. The real challenge is going to be to increase defense readiness (the point of the spear) while reducing the cost of development and not being perceived as "anti military" which frankly many in the Obama administration are in fact.
The immigration issue is huge. Unfortunately, it has many of the characteristics of trying to put the toothpaste back into the tube. The problem with those folks who are already in the country is literally insurmountable. Know that the border states have already gone over to the other side --- nobody in Texas is opposed to immigration or amnesty --- cause the illegal immigrant is an entrenched element in the workforce. And, they ARE the hardest working folks in America today.
Give careful consideration to the implicatons of Tex-Mex when making decisions related to immigration. It will get very ugly if you run off the folks at Matt's El Rancho. Very, very ugly!
I think it is short sighted not to allow unlimited immigration of folks with advanced degrees.
Do you know that an illegal who joins the American Army and serves honorably is almost assured of citizenship before the end of their first tour? This is the greatest overlooked boon to legal immigration.
That's what we need and have needed for a long time
The time has come for the line item veto.
ugh
We have congress that is responsible to no one but special interests. Until that changes only the most gifted of presidents ( Obama might be just that ) will have a chance of making any serious change.
And while we are on the subject of constitutional amendments... I think it is about time we call for a constitutional convention. We haven't had one in over 200 years. Don't you think we are about due?
Living in both Texas and Arizona I can tell you that people are definitely not against LEGAL immigration. I don't think any American citizen is.
The problem is illegal immigration. It is destructive from top to bottom and there are plenty of Texans and Arizonans who are rightfully against illegal immigration in any form.
With that being sd ur comment on an illegal who joins the Military is spot on. That's actually with any immigrant. My father in law from Italy joined the Marines and became a US Citizen that way. His story is classic - served in the military - opened up businesses in Chicago and prospered, moved to Arizona back in 1961 with his profits and started building. He worked his butt off and "retired" at 40. His education level when he left Italy and joined the Marine Corps - 5th grade.
One last point - No one controls your destiny but yourself. We have all been given free will and with that comes personal accountability and responsibility.
"You may be whatever you resolve to be." Stonewall Jackson, VMI Professor and noted artilleriest --- carved in the arch at the entrance to the VMI barracks and drilled into my head for 4 painful (not so painful really) years
opportunity employer and it never asks for a transcript." - looking for a
place to carve it into.
Hey we gotta be careful here - You, myself, and others are starting to open
up a self-reliance, "you can do it" energy vortex.
That's funny. ;-)
Look far back in history and pick you favorite civilization; would you think it was silly for them to forgo the joys in life to be consumed of worrying about their position in the world forever? Work and hope for the best, just keep the bigger picture in mind. You get one life. Maybe, instead of all this worry you could get out and FLOURISH.
1. you blog continues to be a opinionated and rational voice instead of veering from usual just for Obama.
2. i can therefore continue to thoroughly enjoy this blog :-p
I would recommend Obama hire the Duarte team (they created the presentation for An Inconvenient Truth) to create a compelling video/slide show that can educate people against pithy smug marketing. Failing which, I am forced to wonder is there truth to the accusations?
People need to understand that 85% (making it up) of the housing stimulus fund will NOT go towards helping irresponsible, greedy dead beats. Some of it will but this is reality of the world, there are always edge cases.
Last night a friend and I both parked our cars in a parking garage. My total for the night was 6.50$, hers was 18$, why? Because she was parked for 7:15 hrs while I was parked for 6:55 hrs. The pricing in the garage is slabbed till 7hr and everything over 7 and under 24 is 18$. Does it suck for my friend, yeah but again she is an edge case and no pricing can be perfect.
It's a quirk in my personality
With respect to "people vs banks", I think we need to sort out the banking system and not be distracted by the politically popular concern for the poor defaulted home owner. More thoughts here http://tinyurl.com/ajhgzc
As for education, I believe it is a priority but not a federal responsibility. Not every issue of consequence needs to be dealt with by Washington. Remember the current crisis was in large part brought about by Washington's efforts to make a lot of homeowners out of people that could not afford homes.
Also, your #3 is contradicted somewhat by #5 and #9. Energy and Health Care investments will help with the recovery, too.
#7 is a bit off, too. There is a difference between giving money to ta ech startup and to a bank. There is a lot of creative work in tech that, as you point out, should not be controlled. banking, though, is more of a business where keeping track of the money flows can be algorithmic and desirable.
The other points are very good (I should have started with the positives, maybe). I especially like #1 and 2...
Well done
We always have in this country
I do have issues with governments and non-profits
It's hard for me to wrap my head around any institution that is not
optimized for success
It's a tough environment to start a private school right now, but despite that there have been many people applying even though we are still finalizing the location! And it's set to open this Fall.
He and I are both entrepreneurs and we are probably raising 2 more so it makes for interesting conversations around here. :-)
But it seems that public education is not near what it used to be and one theory I've heard is that when we were younger women had fewer career options and one was being a teacher. So you had some really smart women teaching, but now many smart women choose other careers because they are more lucrative.
Great comment
I reblogged it in its entirety on fredwilson.vc
New word?
I need to make fun typos a regular feature here at AVC