A VC - Latest Comments in http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Steve Kane — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 13:53:54 -0000

Fred, think what you're seeing is 100% real and will only get more obvious day after day. And the reason is thrilling and also obvious and also a little scary - cause we are all getting older

The mainstreaming of youth-appeal stuff is inevitable, as the first generation of users ages and itself becomes mainstream etc etc.

Heck the web really hit the mainstream some 15 years ago already! today's early adopters weren't even born yet.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Eben Thurston — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 10:06:56 -0000

There are two main issues I think defines what tech services go mainstream and why. One is age. As some have pointed out many of our 30+ wives have become enthusiastic users of facebook, connecting to friends new and old. My non-tech wife has been on facebook for a few months and she loves it and just last night wondered how she ever lived without it. I have 300+ fb friends and my wife is jealous. My college age cousin however, has several thousand friends on FB and several thousand photos. That's not a function of my wife and I being less geeky, I'm definitely a larger geek than my cousin. It because way more mainstream kids use facebook than mainstream adults.

The other factor is the blockbuster effect. A single tech service taking off with the mainstream is more about product and marketing than the underlying tech category. Facebook's and youtube's success does not mean that social networks and video sites are now a mainstream phenomenon.

Tech services become more mainstream as more tech oriented younger generations grow up but it's still a hit driven market. Individual company iez break out, not entire product categories.

Mobile just makes everything seem more accesable for people who are scared of their PCs but not their phone. By the way, sorry for any typos, I'm writing this on my iPod Touch.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Kate Brodock — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:34:23 -0000

Fred, great point. It's funny, every time I get together with new media cohorts, we always have to remind ourselves that most people don't know what the heck Twitter is, but we use it and talk about it every single day (er... 100 times a day?). I have friends outside the space ask "Tweet... huh? You're...huh?"

Part of the conversion should be on ALL of our shoulders. Whether you're an investor, a consultant, or you've got a new technology, it's in ALL of our best interest to get the word out, because your job would definitely benefit (not only in new business, but even in current business, with issues like convincing upper-level management that a new media strategy is needed (and hence, use of new technologies).

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Jauder Ho — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:56:44 -0000

I'll try that the next time I'm in NYC.

If you are out in San Francisco, try Zushi Puzzle. They have fresh uni and it is *very* good. Make sure to sit at the counter. The chef, Roger serves up some really interesting food.

Sushi in Japan is in short amazing. I have to go to Taiwan soon and may have to take a detour just for the food.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

fredwilson — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:48:07 -0000

Yasuda in NYC has the best Uni I've ever had. I am sure there is better in
Japan

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Jauder Ho — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:36:53 -0000

Fresh uni if you can get it is even better. I only know of a few places that serve it.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

fredwilson — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 07:49:06 -0000

Have you tried twitter? I never thought I'd like uni until I tried it and now its about my most favorite food of all

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

johndodds — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 07:32:26 -0000

It inevitably depends on your definition of mainstream, but I agree with you that the rise of mobile will help to drive this. That said, the issue of mobile data charges seems to me be a factor that might discriminate against a lot of the mainstream on those dveices.

Away from mobile where, in general, users gravitate to newer and newer handsets (although even that is beginning to slow in europe), I think there is a bigger technological/usability trade-off. That's because a large part of the mainstream are not using the latest OS and yet developers tend to design for just that.

I've had personal very recent experience of that with Twitter, but equally was told last night by a gaming expert of the increased tendency for new products to require very high-end specs of users who play on computer as opposed to console.

The move to mainstream will happen and will be a cultural phenomenon driven by people seeing the value of the services, but how much it will happen will also be dependent on the technologists retaining a sober view of how non-geeks live.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Dan Weinreb — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 07:29:50 -0000

We had the same problem recently with a company hoping to get funding from us at Common Angels. Talking to the beta sites showed that the only people who liked the product were people who just enjoyed the cool technology, not the ones that the company was really trying to get. I was sad since two of the three co-founders are personal friends of mine. They're still trying, including re-targeting their cool technology to other market opportunities. But the "it's only for geeks" thing is a real problem sometimes.

Re Jack Hammer's comment above, I think he's exaggerating a bit but his overall point is important. Too many of my own friends are geeks for me to accurately judge the public, sometimes. This is one reason that it's so crucial for product/interaction designers to NOT be the programmers. See the great book "The Inmate are Running the Asylum" and you'll know what I mean, and probably be persuaded yourself. Your designer, obviously, must NOT be a geek.

One never knows what will cross over. My wife used to work at a software company (Software Arts) and is quite comfortable with PC's as far as editing and spreadsheets and browsing the web, but she usually hate gadgetsamnd definitely is not a geek (hey, some of my best friends are girl-geeks; they're great, etc.) However, we just got an Amazon Kindle and she has fallen in love with it!

Another commentator above is right that much technology that HAS gone mainstream was pioneered by geeks. But it does not work the other way; plenty of stuff is uptaken by geeks and never goes mainstream. The old "Crossing the Chasm" book (only a pretty-good book) has a lot of good stuff to say about this.

And I'm a total geek but still cannot see why I would ever want to use Twitter. Well, I'm 49, maybe I'm just too old to "get it". :) I do have a blog!

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

dannyallenjr — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:57:10 -0000

I think that a subset of the geeks is the blogger geeks, kind of an uber geek. I live and work with geeks and people who have iPhones and Blackberries and such, but some of the things that the blogger geeks have adopted and loved and written about, Twitter being a prime example, are not necessary and even annoying to the regular geek set.

I think we have to be careful of being in the echo chamber of the geek blogosphere. I know I try to (somewhat unsuccessfully at times).

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

UltimateFootballNetwork — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:54:02 -0000

I agree that this is a good discussion and all of us need more data points. I've been doing some early product testing in the social news space and have been shocked at the number of people who can't identify Digg or "social news".

This discussion is an extension of Josh Koppelman's old post on the "Techcrunch 50,000". It's now the "Techcrunch 1M" but nonetheless it's still on the wrong side of the chasm and there is no doubt that the 24-hour cycle of social media has created an "echo chamber".

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

heif — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:10:16 -0000

this is such an important & interesting topic.

early adopters seek what's new, while others avoid what's new -- begrudgingly coming along only when the perceived value -- or pain reduction -- of the new tech outweighs the pain of adopting.

early adopters get joy from adopting -- and BONUS, they also get value from what they adopted. not only is it easy to forget that actual, real, needs-addressing value needs to come from what we make, but **it's hard for us to understand the pain & avoidance that must be OVERCOME for others to adopt.**

To Fred's idea that maybe something is changing... I wonder if the world is changing a little -- and people's positive experiences in recent years (& in coming years) will make them "forget" the pain of adopting & thus close the gap that gets them adopting more freely.

Related, I wrote a blogpost titled "50 Reasons Why More People Aren't Using Your Website" awhile back: http://scott.heiferman.com/...

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

fredwilson — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 19:06:24 -0000

Right on

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

fredwilson — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 19:06:18 -0000

It will be back. The costs of supplying effectively free texting in the UK just got too high. People were abusing it with DMs

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

fredwilson — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 19:05:52 -0000

This is a good discussion. We all have anecdotal data points. If I rely just on mine, I could head faked. But if we get enough people weighing in, we'll see a bigger and better picture of where we are

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Geoff — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:15:18 -0000

Pity that Twitter has just hammered us in the UK. Just as i was getting my social circle to start using it via text on their phones :-(
Also very poor customer service just chopping of SMS with no warning at all. Perhaps they hadn't paid their texting phone bill!

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

gregorylent — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 15:28:02 -0000

maybe it is going mainstream ... but the other conversation going on this week is how many people are getting tired of social media ... shegeeks, colin walker ...

and just like in farming, all this stuff is cyclic.... many of the bloggers from 2000 are long gone, not even on friendfeed or twitter ...

20% of americans have never sent an email, lots of room for the mainstream, pull them away from american idol and the national enquirer ...

but i think a more mature view is that these things arise and fall away very quickly, progress dictates that it is so ...

when the maistream is in geek tech, where will geek tech itself be?

not where the mainstream is, that is for sure

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

NICCAI — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 15:04:56 -0000

I won't argue against that many of the services we use are class or geek-centric, but I agree with Fred in that the divide is closing. And, I think Facebook is a major player in that. My wife is a techie of sorts, but generally isn't "after hours." But, Facebook has engaged her as of late. First it was to connect with her kids, but next it was to connect with old friends. Yesterday, I saw a smile on her face that was priceless, because a very old friend had reminded her of a "club" they had as very young kids. Facebook and many new web services allow you to connect (which if I'm not mistaken was the phone's big selling point). The difference is our friends and family are no longer down the street, around the corner or across town. They are across the country, overseas, or strangely a lot closer than we ever imagined.

As this post states, it isn't here, but the crossing is near. Penetration is happening, and the bridge that takes it mainstream will be the mobile. I'll add that the next generation won't know life without these connections, so penetration is inevitable.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

tim — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 15:01:53 -0000

As we everything else - tech crosses over to the mainstream when it reaches a point of usefulness and usability. This is not exactly news. The trick is knowing which tech will do that.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

UltimateFootballNetwork — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:51:06 -0000

Fred,

While I agree that this is the single most important issue for investors (and entrepreneurs expecting adoption) I would disagree with your conclusion based on my own data points. Being that we are in "wedding season" and I'm 32, I've had a chance to catch up with old friends on 3 of the last 5 weekends and I've gone out of my way to ask everyone I could if they were aware of certain web services.

All were "white collar"-types who used Blackberrys/iPhones and considered themselves "internet savvy", yet not a one of them had ever heard of Digg, Twitter or Friendfeed. One person told me that they had "heard of" Digg and Twitter but had no idea what they are. Facebook was the only one that seemed to have crossed over to the mainstream and more than a few folks I talked to were still reluctant to use it.

Perhaps these folks haven't been influenced by their children yet. Either way, I don't think we're quite there.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Darren Herman — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:28:36 -0000

I would say that this all comes down to timing and patience.... ultimately adoption. Our wives use text messaging and blackberries instead of phones. Facebook invites instead of Evites. While it's hard to predict what will become adopted by a large group of people, the "mainstream" are becoming tech-savvy and have a larger appetite these days than previously regarding the adoption of technology into their lives.

Also, as people who were born around personal technology grow older, the adoption cycle will become shorter (potentially) as they are natives.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Jack Hammer — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:27:16 -0000

"whether or not your personal life is a good proxy for mainstream America."

That's my point exactly. My experience with tech industry folks is that they are not remotely like most people, and have no idea about how regular people with moderate incomes live their lives.

Some things will change. People will text message to save on a voice mail or a short call....you'll see that expanding. But this is not a proxy for all of fancy mobile apps, web 2.0, 3.0, X.0........

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

peteonrails — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:16:13 -0000

I think that any time geeks do something with tech, it trickles out to the mainstream years later as it gets refined.

Geeks had modems in the 1980s and dialed up BBSes. Who doesn't use the internet today?
Geeks rushed out and bought the Apple Newton and the first Palm device. Now everyone wants an iPhone 3G. (Ok: not everyone. But a lot of people).
Geeks all had personal websites 15 years ago where they posted pictures of their geeky friends and family. Now it's easier than ever to run a blog where you post nothing but pictures of what you ate today.

I think geeks are part of the process of taking a technology product mainstream. They are early to adopt, honest and vocal about their product feedback, and will beat the crap out of your product so you can eventually reach the masses with it.

Disqus, Loopt, FriendFeed, and the rest may be stuck with the geeks for now, but some will ultimately figure out how to provide utility to the mainstream and go gangbusters.

But you can't cross the chasm without your early adopters.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

zackmansfield — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 11:57:24 -0000

I've noticed some of the exact same "signs" in personal life - and I'm 26 and in a different "real world" social circle and stage of life.

Another interesting sidebar conversation is the continued acceleration of segmentation within the mainstream as these technologies begin to become part of popular culture. What I mean is this - I'm 26 and graduated from college just before Facebook came onto the scene. My sister, who is 3 years younger, was right in the middle of the opening surge, and quickly became an avid user. While she and many of her friends are still active facebook users (and could potentially become even more active users as additional features are added), the crowd that is 1-2 years younger has an even more pervasive attachment to facebook - they do all their messaging through there, status updates, pictures etc. With high school age kids it is THE thing they do - it is their life.

The same idea can be seen in forms of communication. Many 30+ year old adults are just beginning to understand text messaging (and other forms such as bberry messaging). For 25-30 it's a very large part of total communication. For 20 and under, it's a massive portion of the pie.

The acceleration continues, and as services become more mainstream, it will only be magnified and noticeable. While Twitter is still relatively "techie" at this point in time, I think it's not far from taking off as mainstream for the college and younger crowd. It's fascinating stuff to watch.

Re: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/is-geek-tech-go.html

Erik Schwartz — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 11:50:43 -0000

So the real question is whether or not your personal life is a good proxy for mainstream America.

Are smartphones even 5% of the US mobile market yet?

Apple recently said that the 3 million iPhones they sold in the US were 25% of the US smartphone market. That would put the whole US smartphone market at about 12 million units (~4.5% of the US mobile marketplace)

Related question: What percentage of smartphones are paid for by consumers and what percentage are paid for by employers?