-
Website
http://avc.com/ -
Original page
http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/08/venture-fund--1.html -
Subscribe
All Comments -
Community
-
Top Commenters
-
ShanaC
1217 comments · 71 points
-
daryn
213 comments · 14 points
-
kidmercury
827 comments · 103 points
-
howardlindzon
207 comments · 71 points
-
Charlie Crystle
203 comments · 35 points
-
-
Popular Threads
-
Getting Computer Science Into Middle School
1 day ago · 254 comments
-
End of Year Music Posts
11 hours ago · 36 comments
-
How To Get Me To Hang Up On You
3 days ago · 158 comments
-
Open APIs and Open Standards
4 days ago · 207 comments
-
Trading Deals, A Lost Art?
2 days ago · 78 comments
-
Getting Computer Science Into Middle School
* what does a fundraising pitch look like for a VC pitching an LP? or What compels an LP to back you guys? is it mostly a people game (like raising early stage funding for a company), or is there something more to it?
* what does the periodic LP meeting look like?
* is there any way, with appropriate etiquette, for entrepreneurs to ask about details / economics of the current fund that would materially alter the likelihood of raising funding from a particular VC?
* naturally, different fund structures based on the key metrics you describe above yield differentiation between different VCs. There are obvious ones (larger fund = larger average deal size = later stage/different industry investments). how do different values of the more nuanced metrics cause differentiation between VCs? For example, management fee pct., carry, or ratio of initial investment to follow-on investment
As for details of the current fund altering the likelihood of fund raising, my guess is that the age of the fund makes the biggest difference. A brand new fund is able to invest in startups that might have an 8+ year exit horizon, but a 5 year old fund is probably looking for a quicker hit since they'll have to return LP money sooner.
As for size of the fund, that sometimes affects investment stage preference, but more importantly it reflects expected outcomes - again, going back to fund strategy. A fund might put $10mm+ in a series A and/or B if it sees a realistic scenario of a 50x return on that capital. Mgmt fee is fairly similar between funds, but carry seems to be a function of performance - some hedge funds take 50% since they have such a good track record.
For example, somehow, people who have not raised venture funds before raise funds. So what do they pitch? Do their pitches focus on spaces or theses? Or otherwies? If so, how does what they pitch to an LP manifest itself and play out in the investments they make. Sure track record is a piece of it, but is there any more depth to it than that? Beyond the people involved, are there other reasons why an LP wouldn't just try to put their money in Sequoia and Kleiner or wait for an opportunity to do so? I raised an early stage round with relatively no real track record (as far as prior exits go) for my company recently, and I certainly would say that a piece of it was who we were. But a big piece of it was also the people game and the story we were telling. What's the story that LP's get told?
And I would guess that there are more factors than just age that make the biggest difference. As Fred points out, there are about 15 different knobs they tune and adjust. Let's say, Union Square, Accel, Benchmark and Sequoia all have slightly different fund structures. Beyond age, what else could change the dynamics of the conversation you have and more so, how do you go about discussing those with VCs one talks with.
Some of which I think I can tackle in future posts on this topic
Thanks
fred
The most shocking stat was that carried interest only ended up being about 2X the management fees. I always thought the ratio was much higher. Given this fact, isn't it important to the VC model to be able to make some money off the management fees?
It also emphasizes what a good deal the hedge fund guys get.
management of the fund
It should ³cover the rent² if you know what I mean
If you can make a bundle on management fees, why worry about carried
interest?
And that means non-alignment with the investors
but if truth be told the vast vast majority of funds and vc partners are basically earning little or no carry while making humungous gobs opf compensation on managment fees
i mean, heck - with just $500MM under management, a firm is taking in around $10MM in managament fees per annum. that firm probably has 5-6 partners making investments
but the firm pushes off the cost of closing deals (legal costs) onto the LPs (via the portfolio companies) so whats left?
maybe a dozen support staff (at say $175K/each on average all in, or $2MM/year)
plus rent and utilities (maybe $500K/year)
plus T&E (maybe $500K/year)...
totals $3MM/year.
say i'm way off and toss in another $1MM/year -- new total $4MM total costs/year
and that still leaves $6MM year in management fees for the 5-6 partners to split... whether or not they ever earn LPs any return at all, let alone carry for themselves
this is the typical VC firm these days. sure the top decile are making great returns for LPs, and ergo earned fortunes for themselves. but, just like the mutual fund business, the typical manager is earning huge comp while investors get fair or poor returns
Or your point
But not all funds are required to return the entire amount of their
investors capital before taking carried interest fees
Some are, including our 2004 fund
fred
Thank you for being open. I enjoyed reading this article.
The risk of this type of investment is an element that is missing from the analysis. It would be helpful if you an expand on it.
In particular, from the LP perspective, how is the risk-gain trade off of 2x over 10 years compares to a hedge fund, 5-star mutual fund, and mid-grade bond?
Great point...allocation decisions should be based on risk/reward of next incremental dollar in the asset class, so I'd imagine risk/payoff curves could be pretty steep as the "blue chips" in each asset class fill and money is left for less established players and the LP gets to decide which players and how much.
I've always wondered about the impact of leverage on funds-- since the LP can leverage their own money, why have they allowed such an escalation of risk through leverage in hedge fund and PE investments? Does VC use similar financial tricks to "enhance" the LP's return?
own
I think that's the minimum experience you'd want and I feel that the second
time, when I had been in the business for 18 years, has worked out a lot
better
Two questions:
* Hasn't Union Square fared far better than the average fund over the past 5 years? That's great, but I think we should be careful not to generalize too much about VC funding success from your example...
* I'm not sure I follow how the net IRR calculation relates to time. Is that based on 6 years with a single payment to investors at the end of that period?
too early to tell. Ask me that question in 2014 and I'll know for sure.
IRRs work off of the cash flows. Take a look at the previous post (linked to
in this post) for details on that
fred
Don Dodge had some IRR detail also - very impressive numbers if you continue to manage and pick companies so well.
In other words, imagine an $80M fund returns $160M in 5 years. With no hurdle rate, LPs get their $80M back, and then the VC fund gets 20% of $80M = $16M. With a 4% hurdle rate, the VC fund would have to return (1.04)^5*$80M ~ $97M before earning their incentive fee--they only get 20% of ~$60M or $12M. The VC firm principals took home $4M (the difference between $16M and $12M in incentive fees for no hurdle and hurdle respectively) in this case simply for equaling what the LPs could have earned putting that money into a risk-free security.
VC partners should only be paid for the value they create--that is, return above the threshold of the opportunity cost of capital. Plus, this analysis doesn't take risk into account. If most VC firms were compared to similarly timed and similarly risky leveraged investments in the S&P 500, over time the leveraged investments in an equity index would trounce the vast majority of VC firms' track record *before* costs, let alone after.
It's very interesting, thanks!
Honestly, as some have pointed out, the risk/reward in VC is tough enough
that when you hit it out of the park, the LPs should get to share the wealth
ratably
I am not a VC so I do not know the evaluative mechanisms and standards utilized, but it seems to me that algorithms could be developed to predict investment ROI success. Using reverse engineering, one could look at the investment results of one's (or others) investments, and then work backwards to determing what were the apparent charateritics and elements contributing to that result (and then test this algorithm against other results, seeing how well it fits and tweaking (or coming up with a new algorithm) for, for example, separate classes of investments.
Areas that might be assessed/measured in such algorithms might include: historical and current rates of return in that sector, assessed exit avenues available and their payoffs, strength of team and operational capability, competitive analysis in regard to the percentage of value obtainable in market (or desirability for purchase or other exit) relative to competitors, etc.
Not that it is pure science by any means. The art pieces include, among other considerations perhaps, notions of vision and disruption.
Techmeme employs an algorithm (which people argue about) in terms of defining what are popular/influential tech stories that has made it in some sense, a go to informational predictive model. TechCrunch presents a framework (model), always evolving, that guides readers' expectations (as well as tech entrepreneurs) in regard to how value will be measured.
PREDICTIVE (AND THUS WITH INVESTMENT FINANCIAL) SUCCESS IS, IT SEEMS TO ME, HEAVILY TIED INTO THE ABILITY TO EXTRACT VALUE FROM NOISE. That is what the above models are attempts to do.
Predicting the fundamental change necessary to extract the required value from the noise, in that scenario, simply requires too much "art" to make the "science" like that meaningful.
It's not hard to figure out the main things VCs look for in investments: tying those variables into a model requires too much judgment and assumption to make the results valuable.
1. Predictive modeling is useful only up to a certain point. As I'm sure you've heard many, many times by now, the current credit crisis (as well as other crises, e.g. the LTCM implosion) can largely be attributed to blind, unwarranted faith in the power of predictive models. You could potentially argue that this was just because the models weren't powerful enough - perhaps they failed to take into account what Soros calls the "reflexivity" of market behavior. But things like that are essentially black swans - you don't know that they exist until your investment has gone belly up.
2. What most major Wall Street firms are spending their money on is risk management, i.e. figuring out how much money they could possibly lose on a given investment, as opposed to what they are likely to gain. The models that tend to work best are the ones where there is a significant/huge amount of historical data to test against, e.g. corporate default data for corporate bonds. As the amount of data decreases, the reliability of the model begins to break down. This is why Moody's had no real business rating CDOs and other recent structured products - there simply was no way that they had enough data to accurately model the risk on those instruments.
There are a couple of points here. First, because risk models look at established structures, they should (theoretically, at least) have a fairly solid amount of quantifiable information about the underlying asset. Credit analysts can look at audited financial statements, etc. for use in their analysis of a company's credit-worthiness. It's not immediately clear that a VC can do the same, especially for early-stage companies that are unlikely to have detailed financials.
Moreover, it strikes me that a lot of the "secret sauce" in venture capital investing is not in the quantifiable aspects of the investment, but rather in more qualitative views on macro-trends, management teams, the potential for disruptive change in established business sectors, etc. While it is not impossible to ascribe a value to these elements and place them in a model of some sort, the degree of accuracy that you'd expect to see is so low that you might as well just toss the whole thing out and pick your final number out of a hat. Garbage in, garbage out.
3. It's not necessarily clear that VC firms have the resources to do this sort of thing on their own. Major Wall Street firms are much, much larger than major venture capital firms.
I'd say more, but this is getting really long for a comment. Again, I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm just saying that it would be hard to build a model that you could rely on to accurately predict the ROI on a particular investment. You can (and probably should) put a handful of assumptions into a model that might give you a view on the likelihood of your investment's success. But in my view, these models should always confirm hypotheses, rather than drive them.
Another very interesting post. I am struggling with one assumption on the above article, which perhaps you could clarify?
You mention that if there are profits, the managers of the fund take a carried interest on the profits, in your case 20%. Do I understand it correctly that these monies go to the fund manager and not the partners of the VC fund? Are there any other dividend structures in place that look after the partner of the fund based on an investment?
If so, and please correct me if I am wrong, that the total management fees would be in the range of: Total Management Fees: $20mm + Carried Interest Fees: $44mm = $64 mm (over a period of 10 years)?
What I fail to understand however is why the carried interest fees should be deducted to get the NET multiple, the carried interest fee is only paid when the company runs a profit and should have no influence on the multiple, again please feel free to comment.
All in all it looks to me that the fund managers are the ones with the best deal in the house: zero risk and, as in your example, a 'return' of 64mm compared to 222mm with 80mm risk for the partners.
Kind regards,
Pieter Smits
However, the fund managers do generally put up between 1% and 5% of the
fund's capital commitment so it's not zero risk
And the management fees go to cover expenses and not all of it ends up in
the fund managers pocket
In the case of small funds, very little goes into the fund managers pocket
because there's a certain amount of overhead that a venture fund must carry
regardless of size (rent, legal, employees, financial management, etc)
fred
When defending VC's, Bill Gurley once told me "I can't think of a group less worthy of your sympathy!"
Despite this, here goes:
It sure sounds like a good gig to get guaranteed the 2% per year regardless of performance. But partners all must put "skin in the game", and the nuances boil down to the math. I know personally a VC partner who closed a $100m fund, and due to the nature of the closing and other factors, he actually had to *PAY* $400k out of his pocket first couple years just to start.
If that's the case, then it may be the right thing. I am not close enough to know for sure
Great posts. Have already forwarded on to several people, most articulate explanation I have seen of the economics of our business.
Do want to point out, that even when on paper fund managers say they are in for 1-5% of the total committed capital, two factors mitigate the power of that commitment:
1. If total management fees (net of costs of running fund) taken by that GP exceeds the actual commitment by 2-3X or more, than there is almost zero risk. E.g. if on a $200 million fund the GP commits 1%, meaning $2 million, but takes in $4 million a year in fees, after a few years that commitment is more than made up for, at least by 3X.
2. Often the GP commitment is actually loaned to the GP by the fund...and then there is no risk.
As you correctly point out, in small funds the GPs are completely in-line incentive wise with the rest of the LPs. As is the case in our $10 million fund...although there are days I wouldn't mind collecting the management fees on a $200 million!;-)
All the best,
Jacob Ner-David
The definition of venture capital success has changed radically in the past 10 years.
Used to be (ca. 1980s-early’90s) that “winners” were defined as returning no less than a 10x money multiple, preferably in 5 years or less. That works out to a minimum 58% gross annual return.
Looking at Thomson Reuters’ rather extensive (and expensive) VenturExpert database, your readers might be interested in knowing that vintage year 1995 VC funds (all funds started in 1995) statistically provided the following net returns to their LP investors:
Mean Net IRR: 46% (≤44x Net Money Multiple*)
Median Net IRR: 21% (≤6.7x Net Money Multiple*)
So-Called “Pooled Average” Net IRR: 60% (≤110x Net Money Multiple*)
(* Calculated as if all money were pulled down on day zero and returned on the last day of year 10.)
As with your analysis, net refers here to returns to LP investors, net of management fees and carried interest.
The 1995 vintage year funds are noteworthy because they “straddled” the bubble up and down cycle. Plus most all are fully closed out by now, so final results are in.
LP investors tend to look at investing in the top quartile of VC fund performers. The top quartile of the 1995 vintage funds returned 65% Net IRR (≤150x Net Money Multiple*).
Carrying this a step further, the top decile of these funds returned 129% net IRR (≤3,966x Net Money Multiple*).
The moral of this analysis is that exceptionally few VCs provide most all the venture returns to their LP investors (and disproportionately enrich themselves and their portfolio entrepreneurs in the process). They all succeed by finding and fostering home runs and grand slams, not base hits. This can be proven historically by analyzing vintage year funds prior to 1995.
Today, most VCs struggle finding and fostering technology “quick-flip” base hits that, on average, return 4-10x gross, mostly through M&A exit. Your “planned” 6.5x “winner” average clearly validates that.
The National Venture Capital Association has published a series of now 3 studies illustrating that most historical home runs have not been in high-tech, but rather in low-tech to no-tech start-ups fostered into substantial sustaining corporations.
Everybody’s knee jerk is to blame the pubic markets for the downturn in IPO exits.
Yet, the fraction of M&A exits eclipsed IPO exits way back in 1997 – back when the IPO market was red hot, even for new issues built more on hype than substance (no profits in sight, let alone 4 trailing quarters).
Thus, it appears that most VC firms and professionals are in effect still operating on 10-year-old bubble dynamics: Technology-based quick flips. Surviving VC firms will find a different space in which to focus – maybe by rushing back to the future.
Investors serious in seeing a new home run opportunity can reach me at j.freidell at ieee.org – Jim.
The VC is one step removed, both from the technology and the investor. Imagine the power your real estate agent would have if you turned over your money and your decision to him in picking a personal house, or ... doing the same with a car salesman to buy you a car..... how about picking a wife through a matchmaker - well ... that is actually being done.
Unless a VC can read tomorrow's newspaper (and looking at the average VC portfolio, you know for certain that they can't or don't do just that) , in order to coerce a return, a VC is required by definition to make a deal that leans to destroying what an entrepreneur has created. When you promise 30% annual net returns, the only way you can attain it is by cutting from both ends - the success side and the entrepreneur side.
Maybe the VC earns his fees after all by being willing to get his hands bloody
Not true Carl, at least not historically. The VCs of the 1980s and early 1990s helped immensely in creating 30%+ IRR wealth. Often, they individually had personal home-run experience: starting a company and taking such through IPO; creating a highly profitable free-standing and self-supporting billion-dollar corporation. Today's breed of VC doesn't generally have that experience. Instead most VCs at best have personally started a software or Internet startup and sold it before much in the way of net profits were ever produced. While that was the miracle of the bubble era, such strategy rarely succeeds today. Hence, VC profitability post-bubble is generally in the tank. Last year, Cambridge Associates opined that, of approximately 750 VC firms, at most 55 had a current fund that was not under water.
There is a huge difference between building a self-sustaining multi-billion dollar home run from a start-up, compared to building an R&D or development division, masquerading as a start-up, effectively for a large suitor.
Fred and other VCs may tell us that the current crop of entrepreneur is to blame. All want to create quick wealth exploiting their technical ideas, certainly not invest the time, money and effort to build real self-sustaining companies from their technical ideas. They may also tell us that their LPs impose constraints regarding what the VCs may invest in. Both may be true. But in the end, it is the VC that gets to pick its LPs and its portfolio companies. Their success or failure depends on their wisdom, experience, energy and commitment. So far this decade, the prognosis is not good (except with perhaps 10 or so VCs out of today’s 650 or so firms).
I thought that for a fund's life, 2-3% mgmt fee was for the life of the fund?
down gradually to reflect less work and less companies under management
The fund manager might include a subset of the partners but usually its the same thing
http://vc-brazil.com/blog/2009/05/13/top-ventur...