A VC: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?
vruz
· 1 year ago
I voted 24.
If Microsoft are so confident in Yahoo's search/ads business, why should Yahoo give it away to them ??? If Yahoo really have it, they certainly don't need Microsoft at all.
YHOO will take a relatively small hit because of opportunists withdrawing. At the end of the day, Microsoft may be helping Yahoo to get a just valuation.
Yahoo has a plan (bad or good, we'll see) and they met their financial goals, something Microsoft has failed to do. Microsoft has no serious plan B, other than attempting a new acquisition again.
More interesting to me: Expect a bigger hit in MSFT, *****who have no alternative strategy***** and some executive reshuffling.
pravin
· 1 year ago
close at $24/share on heavy selling..i do agree with you tho ultimately it should stabilise around $26/share
kbolgarov
· 1 year ago
I suggest it be 20, but, being an optimist, i vote for 22. But i will be really glad if the stock price turns out to be 26 as Fred assumes.
paul
· 1 year ago
I'd love to see a Ticker Tape of all the YHOO transactions on Monday morning.
How many shares will be dumped and how many will Jerry buy?
awilensky
· 1 year ago
It's up after hours!!!!
Julien
· 1 year ago
Totally agree.. despite what many people think, MS has "set the price" for YHOO, at least for the next few weeks. And well, let's be honest, I would be surprised if YHOO didn't try to keep its share price higher -artificially?- to avoid having the same problem too soon!
TalentSynch
· 1 year ago
Depends ultimately if YHOO releases any form of announcement as well, say an alternative strategy. I think the market will want to know how they will evolve their revenue model. BTW - I don't think it was necessarily bad that the MSFT deal didn't through and certainly isn't the end of the world for YHOO. They do however need to redefine their space and who they are, innovate and then execute with excellence. Ex - They did a lousy job with HotJobs integration and this could have been a big win for them - and the recruiting industry. Looking at the direction of recruitment advertising, social, function complexity - YHOO could have positioned Hot Jobs to be a leader and won on many fronts outside of recruitment as well. They will be an attractive buy/relationship for someone but will most likely need to come down in price. So, I said $28, $29 n/a, and am not anticipating any major reaction unless something else is released between now and then, or ,well, the rest of the market tanks as well!
Dave
· 1 year ago
Your poll doesn't go low enough, so I didn't vote.
awilensky
· 1 year ago
The real question: Microsoft share values! I have no idea....up down or sideways - what is the perception of the market?
vruz
· 1 year ago
I think MSFT is going to take a hit. And executive roles reshuffling is possible too.
Big screwup, value destruction, failed financial goals, no Plan B in sight. (other than possibly acquiring every other web 2.0 startup out there?)
If there's any rationality left, MSF should take a hit. (which, of course... is not a sure thing)
timothysykes
· 1 year ago
haha c'mon Fred, you gotta bribe people with a giveaway like I'm doing:
Which tells me people are interested enough to do this without a reward
But I did comment on your post with my $26 guess
timothysykes
· 1 year ago
damn i gotta an audience like yours!
jeremystein
· 1 year ago
its difficult to say how the market will react
when the announcement was made, youll find that a lot of shareholders take profits while hedge funds jump in to try to scalp a few bucks.
that being said, had microsoft gone to a proxy fight, they would have won because all of those funds are voting to sell. its interesting that they didnt do this-- it would have been cheaper.
Willy
· 1 year ago
Yeah, but the end product would have included a poison pill of sorts, at least from microsofts perspective, of a revenue deal with google, which would have eliminated the incentive to buy Yahoo in the first place...
jeremystein
· 1 year ago
thats a fair point, but raises another: antitrust.
Willy
· 1 year ago
True, and a really significant and interesting wildcard...Of course, MS has to hope for the best
jeremystein
· 1 year ago
yes, it really depends on the specifics of the deal
if you were simplifying it for a model you would assume that the chances of being rejected is the combined market share (as a %)
Willy
· 1 year ago
The market told us what yahoo is worth- $19. If/when MS is truly out of the picture, Yahoo on its own is worth the $19 the market said it was, and diving. Yang has no chance if implementing any strategy that will bring the stock price over $20. None.Can you say recession.
Management is Yahoos weakness, and they showed it again by snubbing this incredible deal for shareholders. However, the stock will remain inflated because once the dust settles, it will be clear Yang overplayed his hand, and will be forced by shareholders, hat in hand, to go back begging MS for the $33. They just better do it soon. The higher the probability that shareholder revolt forces Yahoo to accept, the higher the price. So, look for loud yelping to drive the stock up, and delusional confidence that Yahoo can improve revenues on their own to drive the stock down. I think it will touch $22, but close up around $24 - $26, mostly because yahoo is Absolutely insane not to take this deal, and soon!, and the market will be expecting/pricing that.
vruz
· 1 year ago
Yahoo management is not weak at all.
They've managed to get out of this so far, you know, it's Microsoft we're talking about.
Bear hug, and they got out of it.
How is that weak ????
Davealevine
· 1 year ago
Finance theory would tell us the stock should go up. Management has better information than we do and they think it is worth more than $34/share.
That said, managers make bad decisions, and people freak out when the world changes; so it will drop a bit. Long-term this is going to make YHOO More valuable.
Willy
· 1 year ago
Not true. MS was valuing the company for what it was worth to them, and paying a hefty premium because if they owned it, they could leverage it to create more value, specifically in catching google.
Yahoo is struggling, its fundamentals are detiorating, management has proven wishful but ineffective, and we are facing a recession. On its own, it slides down from 19... Both companies need each other.
piyush
· 1 year ago
While the true value might be closer to 25$ as you suggest, I suspect a lethal combination of panic dumping by folks who got in AFTER MSFT's offer on Feb 1st, irritated institutional investors AND shorts are gonna try to push it way down..and hence my vote for 20$.
Ephraim
· 1 year ago
In order for Yahoo to trade in the mid-20's it will have to continue to show strong growth from quarter to quarter. Remember, they pulled in every dollar they could in the last quarter to beat numbers...you'd have to think that this will impact their numbers in Q2 as the dollars had to come from somewhere.
ontokyotime
· 1 year ago
The market will overreact on Monday and then bounce back in the following days. 30% down gets us to $20.
Nick
· 1 year ago
If the question is where will Yahoo close on Monday, the real intrinsic value is pretty irrelevant. Arbitrageurs and frustrated shareholders are all going to dump the stock on Monday morning, and there's simply going to be way more people selling than buying, driving the price way down. The opposing group that believes in the value of Yahoo stock will simply hold the stock and therefore have no effect on the traded share price. There will be bulls that consider the depressed price a buying opportunity, but I don't think there will be enough of these people to weather the tidal wave of sellers.
Kenny
· 1 year ago
FYI. The code for your poll does not work in the RSS feed. Thanks for all the great posts. I've learned a lot by reading your blog and find your thoughts and insights very interesting.
setatakahashi
· 1 year ago
$25.00
vincentvw
· 1 year ago
I'm a coward, so I voted $22. I think Yahoo! held itself up pretty well, these last few weeks, but I don't trust the emotional market, which was likely smelling some big mullah and will now walk away.
Kamal Salim
· 1 year ago
I believe that Yahoo stock will close around $24, on Monday. But, in reality is, Yahoo stock is worth no more than $20 or $21 at this moment. So, I would not be surprised, if the price were to be around $21 by Friday
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
at least I am offering a prize over at my blog fred...come on.
howardlindzon
· 1 year ago
woops - $24.10. shprt at $27, but at $20. The arbs will make this a wild one tomorrow. sticking with coinstar
Sebastian
· 1 year ago
I voted for 22.
Yahoo had a pretty good quarter and made several good moves, which didn't reflect in the stock price back then, because it was too high.
jer979
· 1 year ago
Fred, don't know if this is specific to me, but I'm using Greader on Firefox and get a code error on the post (I see it, but can't vote).
Anyhow, I voted on the site, but could be an RSS thing. I know you look for this stuff, so wanted to share.
Alan Sharavsky
· 1 year ago
Even with the added jolt of a potential Microsoft buyout, the stock rarely broke 29, and has been hugging its 50 day average forever. And prior to that, it was an albatross, trading below 25 for a long time. I say it crashes early, hitting 20, then bounces back up to 22 or 24 at most, its price before the courtship. If that's if it's lucky. Management appears clueless as to what to do.
DIck
· 1 year ago
better question: where will it open AND where will it close (especially if everyone is dumping at the open)
david
· 1 year ago
I think they will be punished. It will go below the price before the offer existed, I bet...
RacerRick
· 1 year ago
Yahoo to 9. MSFT to 36.
cortland
· 1 year ago
I voted $22. While it may be a morale boost for Yahoo and ultimately a good thing for the company, I don't think it will good thing for the stock tomorrow.
danconway
· 1 year ago
24.35
rag
· 1 year ago
Can you post the number of people that voted?
fredwilson
· 1 year ago
1800 as of this morning
Link to the count is in my post this am with the results
steveray
· 1 year ago
Jerry is in over his head, he won't be able to stay on as CEO if the stock tanks. It was a mistake for him to come back in the first place. I can't see the stock going under $20 because if so, shareholders on both sides will demand that cooler heads prevail, even if both CEOs need to go. I've felt all along that YHOO has been overplaying its hand. I voted for 22.
My money (and my vote) is on $22. Yahoo put up a defense that didn't really justify that they are worth more, they played hardball and lost. Microsoft may come back but not for some time and not at the same price.
All Comments
If Microsoft are so confident in Yahoo's search/ads business, why should Yahoo give it away to them ???
If Yahoo really have it, they certainly don't need Microsoft at all.
YHOO will take a relatively small hit because of opportunists withdrawing.
At the end of the day, Microsoft may be helping Yahoo to get a just valuation.
Yahoo has a plan (bad or good, we'll see) and they met their financial goals, something Microsoft has failed to do.
Microsoft has no serious plan B, other than attempting a new acquisition again.
More interesting to me:
Expect a bigger hit in MSFT, *****who have no alternative strategy***** and some executive reshuffling.
How many shares will be dumped and how many will Jerry buy?
And executive roles reshuffling is possible too.
Big screwup, value destruction, failed financial goals, no Plan B in sight.
(other than possibly acquiring every other web 2.0 startup out there?)
If there's any rationality left, MSF should take a hit.
(which, of course... is not a sure thing)
http://timothysykes.com/2008/05/04/guess-yahoos...
Which tells me people are interested enough to do this without a reward
But I did comment on your post with my $26 guess
when the announcement was made, youll find that a lot of shareholders take profits while hedge funds jump in to try to scalp a few bucks.
that being said, had microsoft gone to a proxy fight, they would have won because all of those funds are voting to sell. its interesting that they didnt do this-- it would have been cheaper.
if you were simplifying it for a model you would assume that the chances of being rejected is the combined market share (as a %)
Management is Yahoos weakness, and they showed it again by snubbing this incredible deal for shareholders. However, the stock will remain inflated because once the dust settles, it will be clear Yang overplayed his hand, and will be forced by shareholders, hat in hand, to go back begging MS for the $33. They just better do it soon. The higher the probability that shareholder revolt forces Yahoo to accept, the higher the price. So, look for loud yelping to drive the stock up, and delusional confidence that Yahoo can improve revenues on their own to drive the stock down. I think it will touch $22, but close up around $24 - $26, mostly because yahoo is Absolutely insane not to take this deal, and soon!, and the market will be expecting/pricing that.
They've managed to get out of this so far, you know, it's Microsoft we're talking about.
Bear hug, and they got out of it.
How is that weak ????
That said, managers make bad decisions, and people freak out when the world changes; so it will drop a bit. Long-term this is going to make YHOO More valuable.
Yahoo is struggling, its fundamentals are detiorating, management has proven wishful but ineffective, and we are facing a recession. On its own, it slides down from 19... Both companies need each other.
Yahoo had a pretty good quarter and made several good moves, which didn't reflect in the stock price back then, because it was too high.
Anyhow, I voted on the site, but could be an RSS thing. I know you look for this stuff, so wanted to share.
Link to the count is in my post this am with the results
http://www.hubdub.com/m6879/What_Price_Will_Yah...
My money (and my vote) is on $22. Yahoo put up a defense that didn't really justify that they are worth more, they played hardball and lost. Microsoft may come back but not for some time and not at the same price.