A VC - Latest Comments in Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

fredwilson — Mon, 05 May 2008 08:29:03 -0000

1800 as of this morning

Link to the count is in my post this am with the results

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

Nigel Eccles — Mon, 05 May 2008 08:13:45 -0000

That's a cool poll. I've embedded it in my blog. I've also recreated the question as a prediction market here:
http://www.hubdub.com/m6879...

My money (and my vote) is on $22. Yahoo put up a defense that didn't really justify that they are worth more, they played hardball and lost. Microsoft may come back but not for some time and not at the same price.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

steveray — Sun, 04 May 2008 23:59:59 -0000

Jerry is in over his head, he won't be able to stay on as CEO if the stock tanks. It was a mistake for him to come back in the first place. I can't see the stock going under $20 because if so, shareholders on both sides will demand that cooler heads prevail, even if both CEOs need to go. I've felt all along that YHOO has been overplaying its hand. I voted for 22.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

rag — Sun, 04 May 2008 23:25:35 -0000

Can you post the number of people that voted?

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

Dan Conway — Sun, 04 May 2008 22:58:09 -0000

24.35

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

cortland — Sun, 04 May 2008 22:45:35 -0000

I voted $22. While it may be a morale boost for Yahoo and ultimately a good thing for the company, I don't think it will good thing for the stock tomorrow.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

RacerRick — Sun, 04 May 2008 21:49:08 -0000

Yahoo to 9. MSFT to 36.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

david — Sun, 04 May 2008 19:10:31 -0000

I think they will be punished. It will go below the price before the offer existed, I bet...

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

DIck — Sun, 04 May 2008 18:46:42 -0000

better question: where will it open AND where will it close (especially if everyone is dumping at the open)

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

Alan Sharavsky — Sun, 04 May 2008 18:00:37 -0000

Even with the added jolt of a potential Microsoft buyout, the stock rarely broke 29, and has been hugging its 50 day average forever. And prior to that, it was an albatross, trading below 25 for a long time. I say it crashes early, hitting 20, then bounces back up to 22 or 24 at most, its price before the courtship. If that's if it's lucky. Management appears clueless as to what to do.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

jer979 — Sun, 04 May 2008 15:47:50 -0000

Fred, don't know if this is specific to me, but I'm using Greader on Firefox and get a code error on the post (I see it, but can't vote).

Anyhow, I voted on the site, but could be an RSS thing. I know you look for this stuff, so wanted to share.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

Sebastian — Sun, 04 May 2008 15:00:19 -0000

I voted for 22.

Yahoo had a pretty good quarter and made several good moves, which didn't reflect in the stock price back then, because it was too high.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

howardlindzon — Sun, 04 May 2008 14:33:26 -0000

woops - $24.10. shprt at $27, but at $20. The arbs will make this a wild one tomorrow. sticking with coinstar

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

howardlindzon — Sun, 04 May 2008 14:32:23 -0000

at least I am offering a prize over at my blog fred...come on.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

Kamal Salim — Sun, 04 May 2008 14:06:20 -0000

I believe that Yahoo stock will close around $24, on Monday. But, in reality is, Yahoo stock is worth no more than $20 or $21 at this moment. So, I would not be surprised, if the price were to be around $21 by Friday

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

vincentvw — Sun, 04 May 2008 13:59:42 -0000

I'm a coward, so I voted $22. I think Yahoo! held itself up pretty well, these last few weeks, but I don't trust the emotional market, which was likely smelling some big mullah and will now walk away.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

高橋エメソン — Sun, 04 May 2008 13:50:07 -0000

$25.00

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

Kenny — Sun, 04 May 2008 13:20:19 -0000

FYI. The code for your poll does not work in the RSS feed. Thanks for all the great posts. I've learned a lot by reading your blog and find your thoughts and insights very interesting.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

Nick — Sun, 04 May 2008 13:17:51 -0000

If the question is where will Yahoo close on Monday, the real intrinsic value is pretty irrelevant. Arbitrageurs and frustrated shareholders are all going to dump the stock on Monday morning, and there's simply going to be way more people selling than buying, driving the price way down. The opposing group that believes in the value of Yahoo stock will simply hold the stock and therefore have no effect on the traded share price. There will be bulls that consider the depressed price a buying opportunity, but I don't think there will be enough of these people to weather the tidal wave of sellers.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

ontokyotime — Sun, 04 May 2008 13:16:12 -0000

The market will overreact on Monday and then bounce back in the following days. 30% down gets us to $20.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

Ephraim — Sun, 04 May 2008 12:45:55 -0000

In order for Yahoo to trade in the mid-20's it will have to continue to show strong growth from quarter to quarter. Remember, they pulled in every dollar they could in the last quarter to beat numbers...you'd have to think that this will impact their numbers in Q2 as the dollars had to come from somewhere.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

piyush — Sun, 04 May 2008 12:34:38 -0000

While the true value might be closer to 25$ as you suggest, I suspect a lethal combination of panic dumping by folks who got in AFTER MSFT's offer on Feb 1st, irritated institutional investors AND shorts are gonna try to push it way down..and hence my vote for 20$.

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

vruz — Sun, 04 May 2008 12:31:49 -0000

I think MSFT is going to take a hit.
And executive roles reshuffling is possible too.

Big screwup, value destruction, failed financial goals, no Plan B in sight.
(other than possibly acquiring every other web 2.0 startup out there?)

If there's any rationality left, MSF should take a hit.
(which, of course... is not a sure thing)

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

vruz — Sun, 04 May 2008 12:28:14 -0000

Yahoo management is not weak at all.

They've managed to get out of this so far, you know, it's Microsoft we're talking about.

Bear hug, and they got out of it.

How is that weak ????

Re: Where Will YHOO Close At On Monday Afternoon?

jeremystein — Sun, 04 May 2008 12:26:12 -0000

yes, it really depends on the specifics of the deal

if you were simplifying it for a model you would assume that the chances of being rejected is the combined market share (as a %)